ING Monthly: Two anniversaries, one uncomfortable mirror

Two anniversaries, one uncomfortable mirror

Our new base case has brought another downward revision to eurozone growth, and not only there

In charts: Three scenarios for energy, macro and markets

How the Middle East conflict could play out across oil and gas markets, plus inflation, central banks and FX

Sitting, waiting, wishing… for energy flows to resume

Energy markets remain extremely sensitive to developments in the Middle East, showing the significance of the supply disruptions we are witnessing

Our latest views on the major central banks

What could be next for the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan over the coming months

Rising inflation signals June rate hike in the eurozone

The eurozone faces weakening growth and rising inflation, prompting expectations of an ECB interest rate hike in June

Stronger growth and reflation ease pressure for stimulus in China

Higher prices are beginning to feed into China's macro data with more reflation ahead

Bank of England unlikely to deliver on market expectations

Political turmoil is driving up UK borrowing costs, but the case for higher interest rates is far from clear-cut

Upside inflation risks in Asia outweigh downside growth risks

Asian central banks tilt towards tightening as inflation risks build

Energy shock reshapes growth and policy outlook in CEE

Poland remains relatively resilient, while the Czech Republic and Hungary face mounting pressure as the energy shock deepens

CIS‑4 FX buoyed by inflows while CPI risks hit the rates outlook

Monthly macro update on Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan as continued tensions in the Middle East lead to higher commodity prices

High rates and commodity exposure preferred in FX

Investors are favouring currencies with high interest rates and positive exposure to energy

Rates face risk of instability

Bond yields are higher, but reasonably well-behaved. We don't expect it, but things could easily get ugly very quickly