ING Think - Economic and Financial Analysis

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Eurozone inflation comes down in November, paving way for 50bp ECB hike 1669804083

Spanish consumer confidence improved in November 1669799928

France: Inflation stabilises, but the peak is still to come 1669799208

UK at risk of falling behind on climate goals after Autumn Statement

23 November 2022

In an era of looming public spending restraint, the UK risks lagging behind in key areas of its net-zero strategy. We look…

By James Smith, Rico Luman and Gerben Hieminga

China’s digital economy: Divided but growing

28 November 2022

Increased regulation of China's consumer tech industry has seriously dented company revenues, with widespread…

By Iris Pang

Fuelling a net zero economy with synthetic fuels: eight lessons to get it right

24 November 2022

Corporate leaders are looking at how synthetic fuels can set their companies on a path to net zero emissions. This is far…

By Gerben Hieminga and Gijs van Hattem

Euro sustainable bond supply set to stagnate in 2023

22 November 2022

Euro sustainable bond issuance in 2023 is not likely to repeat the growth rates seen in the last few years. While…

By Nadège Tillier, Maureen Schuller and Benjamin Schroeder

What is needed to increase renewables in the US power sector?

18 November 2022

The Biden administration’s 100% clean power by 2035 target needs a huge increase in renewable energy use. But…

By Coco Zhang

Watch: 2023 FX Outlook, dollar bears need patience

17 November 2022

The dollar has seen a recent drop from multi-decade highs, but we still think there are a few factors that may just keep…

By Chris Turner

Rates Outlook 2023: Belt up, we’re going down

10 November 2022

Bond market returns for 2022 have been horrific, right along the credit curve. For 2023, returns will be helped by a…

FX Outlook 2023: The dollar’s high wire act

16 November 2022

The dollar is tumbling from multi-decade highs. Calling the FX market in 2023 requires taking a view on the Federal…

By Chris Turner

Sustainability will be key for insurers in 2023 as global concerns mount

8 November 2022

Sustainability, inflation and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on both insurers' minds and balance sheets. But…

By Marina Le Blanc

Banks Outlook: The major challenges and opportunities for 2023

1 November 2022

From exploring new ways of sustainable funding to the further implementation of the European Taxonomy. There will be a…

Commodities Outlook 2023: Europe faces stiff competition for natural gas

The collapse in European natural gas prices in recent months has created a false…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Tighter times ahead for oil

Oil prices have seen a fair amount of weakness as we approach the end of 2022.…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Aluminium faces macroeconomic headwinds

Negative macro sentiment will continue to put downward pressure on aluminium, with…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Middle distillate tightness to persist

Middle distillates have been a standout among refined products. Inventories are…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Macro headwinds to keep pressure on copper prices

Copper has lost all of the gains it made this year as inflation has climbed higher,…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Nickel surplus to build

Nickel has had a tumultuous year amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in…

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ING's November Monthly: The long wait for the pivot

The long wait for the pivot

There are tentative signs that central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic are…

Three scenarios for the global economy and energy prices

The bullish and bearish case for energy prices and what those scenarios would mean…

Central banks: Our main calls

We're now expecting the Fed Funds Rate to hit 5% early next year, albeit in…

Global trade slows and supply chains remain unbalanced

Global trade is slowing over faltering consumer demand amid the energy and…

Lack of Chinese tourists is hindering Asia’s economic recovery

As Asia's current account surpluses get hit by high energy prices, resurgent…

The US is hiking into a recession

The Federal Reserve is focused on defeating inflation, whatever the economic cost.…

The eurozone’s last hurrah before recession bites

The eurozone economy expanded in the third quarter, but most recent data suggests…

Commodities Outlook 2023: Gold to rebound as Fed easing starts

US dollar strength and central bank tightening have weighed heavily on the gold…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Iron ore’s rout to continue until China recovers

Iron ore has been one of the worst-performing commodities this year. Concerns over…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Turbulence in fertiliser markets weighs on crop outlook

Fertiliser supply decreased in 2022 and prices rose to record highs causing a…

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Commodities Outlook 2023: Wheat supply risks will linger

Global wheat markets are likely to tighten over the 2022/23 season. Meanwhile,…

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Media

The path to boosting renewables in the US power sector

2023 FX Outlook: Dollar bears need patience

US mid-terms and the challenges still to come

Central banks: A waiting game

Shift in UK leadership reduces pressure on the Bank of England

More economic drama for Europe amid global shockwaves

The Bank of England’s shrinking options amid the bond market meltdown

More economic pain ahead as the Fed’s inflation fight is far from finished

ECB hawks, the neutral level, and hikes ahead

Recession’s coat of many colours

Could double-digit inflation be on the cards for the eurozone?

Curb your peak dollar enthusiasm

America’s non-recessionary recession

Watch: the Ukraine war and Asia’s race to net-zero

The US Fed delivers another 75bp rate hike and it’s not done yet

Dodging a new euro crisis

Eurozone labour market powers ahead

Deglobalisation ahead? We don’t think so

Europe’s recovery is cancelled

Have yields peaked?

Reports

Poland’s business response to the energy shock

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European and Polish economies are now experiencing a huge energy shock…

By Leszek Kasek and Rafal Benecki

FX Outlook 2023: The dollar’s high wire act

The dollar is tumbling from multi-decade highs. Calling the FX market in 2023 requires taking a view on the Federal…

By Chris Turner

Rates Outlook 2023: Belt up, we’re going down

Market rates should remain under upward pressure going into 2023. In this outlook, we examine what will happen to rates…

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Benjamin Schroeder and Antoine Bouvet

ING’s November Monthly: The long wait for the pivot

Major central banks are still facing high and, in some cases, increasing inflation, dashing hopes for an imminent end to…

By Carsten Brzeski

FX Talking: No margin for error

As the Federal Reserve tightens into a recession and yield curves invert further, expect the dollar to stay bid. We could…

By Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky

ING’s October Monthly: bracing for a tough winter

Temperatures have begun to fall across Europe, bringing a stark reminder of the challenging winter to come. Several major…

By Carsten Brzeski

THINK aloud

Listen: Rate hikes, recession, rate cuts

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley and Padhraic Garvey discuss the US…

Quid Game: UK markets live to fight another day

In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, James Smith and Antoine Bouvet discuss the…

Why is Japan’s inflation so low?

Consumer price inflation rose 3.0% YoY in August, and we look for headline…

Listen: Inflation, intervention and interest rates

In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, Antoine Bouvet and James Smith discuss…

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