In charts: Three scenarios for energy, macro and markets

  • 15 May 2026
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How the Middle East conflict could play out across oil and gas markets, plus inflation, central banks and FX

Carsten Brzeski
Warren Patterson
James Knightley
Peter Vanden Houte
James Smith
Benjamin Schroeder
Francesco Pesole
Carsten Brzeski, Warren Patterson, James Knightley, Peter Vanden Houte, James Smith, Benjamin Schroeder and Francesco Pesole
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Three scenarios for energy prices

- Source: ING
Source: ING

Three scenarios for inflation

- Source: ING
Source: ING

Three scenarios for central banks

- Source: ING
Source: ING

Three scenarios for markets

Chart updated on 18 May to fix typographical errors with some of the swap rate numbers in scenarios 2 and 3. - Source: ING
Chart updated on 18 May to fix typographical errors with some of the swap rate numbers in scenarios 2 and 3.
Source: ING

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This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
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Authors

Carsten Brzeski
Carsten Brzeski

Global Head of Macro
Warren Patterson
Warren Patterson

Head of Commodities Strategy
James Knightley
James Knightley

Chief International Economist, US
Peter Vanden Houte
Peter Vanden Houte

Chief Economist, Belgium, Luxembourg, Eurozone
James Smith
James Smith

Developed Markets Economist, UK
Benjamin Schroeder
Benjamin Schroeder

Senior Rates Strategist
Francesco Pesole
Francesco Pesole

FX Strategist

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Two anniversaries, one uncomfortable mirror

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Two anniversaries, one uncomfortable mirror