Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Latest forecast update: 16 January 2019

Growth (GDP)

%YoY 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
World (USD) 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5
US 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.9 2.3 1.8
Japan 0.6 1.6 0.7 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.3
Germany 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9
France 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3
UK 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6
Italy 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.6
Canada 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.0
Australia 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.9 2.0 2.4
New Zealand 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.7 2.0 2.6
               
Eurozone 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.3
Austria 2.4 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.2 1.8
Spain 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.6
Netherlands 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.7
Belgium 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
Ireland 2.9 3.8 2.5 2.4 6.8 3.8 3.1
Greece 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.6
Portugal 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.6
Switzerland 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.6 1.4 1.5
Sweden 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.2 1.2 1.9
Norway 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9
               
Bulgaria 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.7
Croatia 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.2
Czech Republic 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.9
Hungary 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.4 4.6 3.6 2.7
Poland 5.1 4.2 3.9 3.3 5.1 3.6 2.7
Romania 3.1 5.1 4.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.7
Turkey -1.6 -3.1 -1.3 1.3 2.8 0.2 2.9
Serbia 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.7 3.6
               
Russia 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.5
Kazakhstan 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.4
Ukraine 2.6 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0
               
Brazil 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.6 1.3 2.7 3.2
Mexico 2.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.2
               
China 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.2
Hong Kong 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.3 2.2 2.5
India 6.6 6.4 6.0 6.8 7.1 6.8 7.2
Indonesia 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2
Korea 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.5 1.9 2.6
Malaysia 4.6 4.2 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.8
Philippines 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.4
Singapore 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.9 3.3 2.5 2.9
Taiwan 1.6 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.6 1.8 2.0
Thailand 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.8 4.0

Inflation (CPI)

%YoY 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
World 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8
US 2.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.2
Japan 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.9
Germany 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.8
France 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.8
UK 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.0
Italy 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4
Canada 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.1
Australia 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.0
New Zealand 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7
               
Eurozone 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.7
Austria 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1
Spain 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7
Netherlands 2.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 1.7 2.9 2.0
Belgium 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.8
Ireland 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.4
Greece 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4
Portugal 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.5
Switzerland 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3
Sweden 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.8
Norway 3.3 2.4 1.7 0.7 2.8 1.5 1.7
               
Bulgaria 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 2.9 3.6 3.1
Croatia 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.1
Czech Republic 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
Hungary 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.0
Poland 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.8
Romania 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.5 4.6 3.6 3.3
Turkey 20.3 20.1 18.3 12.0 16.3 17.1 13.4
Serbia 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.8
               
Russia 4.2 5.5 5.9 5.7 2.9 5.5 3.6
Kazakhstan 5.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 5.9
Ukraine¹ 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.3 10.9 9.2 7.7
               
Brazil 3.8 4.4 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.0
Mexico 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.8 3.9 3.2
               
China 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.5
Hong Kong 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8
India 2.6 2.8 3.0 4.1 3.5 4.5 5.0
Indonesia 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.4
Korea 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6
Malaysia 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.6 1.8
Philippines 5.9 3.7 3.3 3.1 5.4 3.3 3.4
Singapore 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.9
Taiwan 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0
Thailand 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4
               
               
Oil Forecasts (avg)              
$/bbl 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
Brent 69.0 65.0 68.0 69.0 72.0 69.0 74.0
WTI 59.0 56.0 59.0 61.0 64.0 60.0 67.0

Source: ING ¹ Quarterly forecasts are eop; yearly forecasts are average over the year 

Policy rates

(%) 14/01/2019 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 4Q20F
US¹ 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.75
Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
UK 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.00 1.50
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
Sweden -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50
Norway 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.75
Canada 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50
Australia 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
New Zealand 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00
                 
Czech Republic 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75
Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 1.05 1.05 1.05
Poland 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Romania 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Turkey 24.00 24.00 23.00 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 16.00
Serbia 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25
                 
Russia 7.75 8.00 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 6.75 6.50
Kazakhstan 9.25 9.50 9.50 9.25 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.00
Ukraine 18.00 18.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 14.00
                 
Brazil 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.00
Mexico 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 7.75 7.25 6.50
                 
China* 1.50 2.50 2.50 2.45 2.45 2.40 2.40 2.35
India 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Indonesia 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
Korea 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Malaysia 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Philippines 4.75 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00
Taiwan 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38
Thailand 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

¹Fed fund rates are between 0.00-0.25

*PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate

3 month rates

(%) 14/01/2019 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 4Q20F
US 2.79 2.80 3.00 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15
Eurozone -0.33 -0.32 -0.26 -0.25 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
Japan 0.07 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 0.10 -0.05
UK 0.90 0.85 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.30 1.35 1.65
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
Sweden -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.30 0.50
Norway 1.26 1.40 1.40 1.70 1.75 1.90 1.95 2.20
Canada 2.29 2.30 2.40 2.60 2.70 2.70 2.80 3.00
Australia 2.06 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.00
New Zealand 1.92 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 2.15 2.15 2.15
                 
Bulgaria -0.14 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10
Croatia 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.55 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70
Czech Republic 2.01 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.95 2.95
Hungary 0.13 0.20 0.30 0.60 0.90 1.05 1.05 1.05
Poland 1.62 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73
Romania 2.92 3.10 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Turkey 22.25 24.50 23.60 21.20 22.10 21.45 19.70 17.25
Serbia 3.04 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.25 3.25 3.25
                 
Russia 7.55 8.40 8.30 7.90 7.50 7.30 6.80 6.40
Kazkhstan 10.25 10.50 10.50 10.25 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.00
Ukraine 18.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 12.00    
                 
Brazil 6.44 6.50 6.60 6.70 6.70 6.80 7.20 7.10
Mexico 8.57 8.40 8.40 8.30 8.20 7.70 7.20 6.60
                 
China* 2.98 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.65 2.65 2.60
Hong Kong 1.82 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.45 2.45 2.50 2.55
India 6.64 6.75 6.80 6.80 6.85 6.90 6.90 6.90
Indonesia 7.44 7.55 7.80 7.75 7.75 7.70 7.75 7.50
Korea* 1.74 1.90 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Malaysia 3.69 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
Philippines* 4.64 5.60 5.35 5.40 5.25 5.20 5.15 4.90
Singapore 1.91 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.90 2.00
Taiwan* 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66
Thailand 1.86 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China; 3-month CD rate for Korea, T-bill rate for the Philippines and CP rate for Taiwan; and 3-month interbank rates for others.

10-year yields

(%) 14/01/2019 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 4Q20F
US: Fed funds 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
3M 2.79 2.80 3.00 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15
2Y 2.53 2.65 2.90 2.85 2.85 2.80 2.80 2.80
5Y 2.51 2.70 2.90 2.85 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.70
10Y 2.69 2.85 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80
30Y 3.04 3.00 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
                 
EU12: ECB refi* 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3M -0.31 -0.32 -0.26 -0.25 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
2Y -0.62 -0.50 -0.45 -0.35 -0.25 -0.10 -0.15 -0.15
5Y -0.37 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.25 0.30
10Y 0.16 0.30 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.50
30Y 0.82 0.90 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.20
                 
Japan 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
France 0.63 0.60 0.80 0.90 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.85
Italy 2.83 2.55 3.00 3.10 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.25
Spain 1.42 1.35 1.55 1.65 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.65
UK 1.26 1.50 1.70 1.85 1.85 1.90 2.00 2.20
Netherlands 0.32 0.40 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.65
Belgium 0.68 0.70 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90
Austria 0.44 0.55 0.75 0.85 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.80
Ireland 0.98 0.85 1.00 1.10 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.05
Portugal 1.68 1.70 1.95 2.10 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.05
Switzerland -0.16 -0.15 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05
Sweden 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Norway 1.77 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.20
Finland 0.48 0.55 0.75 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.75
Canada 1.93 2.20 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.70
Australia 2.27 2.25 2.15 2.30 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40
New Zealand 2.29 2.40 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80
                 
Bulgaria 0.73 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.10 1.20 1.20
Croatia 2.01 2.00 1.90 1.90 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.10
Czech Rep 1.85 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00
Hungary 2.78 3.20 3.35 3.40 3.50 3.55 3.65 3.80
Poland 2.74 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15
Romania 4.67 5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.20 5.20 5.10
Russia 8.48 8.30 8.10 7.90 7.50 7.30 7.10 6.70
Turkey 16.49 16.40 15.90 15.15 15.70 14.35 13.15 11.65
                 
Brazil 9.19 9.20 8.80 8.60 8.60 8.70 8.80 9.00
Mexico 8.59 8.50 8.50 8.30 8.10 8.00 8.20 8.50
                 
China 3.14 3.25 3.20 3.15 3.10 3.10 3.05 3.00
Hong Kong 2.01 2.20 2.40 2.50 2.70 2.90 3.10 3.50
India 7.22 7.60 7.70 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80
Indonesia 8.01 8.30 8.60 8.50 8.55 8.65 8.70 8.55
Korea 1.97 1.95 1.80 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.20 2.20
Malaysia 4.06 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.15 4.10 4.10 4.00
Philippines 7.66 6.35 6.10 6.15 6.00 6.10 6.05 5.80
Singapore 2.15 2.30 2.25 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.50
Taiwan 0.83 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.97 1.00
Thailand 2.46 2.50 2.55 2.55 2.60 2.50 2.80 2.80

*Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields

FX

    14/01/2019 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 4Q20F
Euro EUR/USD 1.15 1.12 1.12 1.15 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.30
Japan USD/JPY 108 113 110 110 105 103 100 95
UK GBP/USD 1.29 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.41 1.44 1.47 1.53
Japan EUR/JPY 124.06 124.30 126.56 126.50 126.00 125.66 125.00 123.50
UK EUR/GBP 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Canada USD/CAD 1.33 1.31 1.29 1.25 1.20 1.20 1.22 1.18
Australia AUD/USD 0.72 0.72 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.75
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.73
                   
Switzerland EUR/CHF 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.20
Sweden EUR/SEK 10.26 10.50 10.30 10.25 10.20 10.20 10.10 10.00
Norway EUR/NOK 9.78 9.50 9.40 9.45 9.50 9.50 9.40 9.30
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46
                   
Bulgaria EUR/BGN 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
Croatia EUR/HRK 7.43 7.42 7.37 7.40 7.45 7.42 7.40 7.45
Serbia EUR/RSD 118.41 118.50 118.00 118.00 117.50 117.50 117.00 116.50
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 25.57 25.70 25.60 25.50 25.40 25.30 25.14 25.00
Hungary EUR/HUF 321 323 320 315 310 310 310 310
Poland EUR/PLN 4.29 4.30 4.24 4.29 4.33 4.32 4.32 4.30
Romania EUR/RON 4.68 4.70 4.75 4.80 4.80 4.82 4.85 4.90
Turkey USD/TRY 5.49 5.70 6.05 6.20 6.30 6.40 6.50 6.70
South Africa USD/ZAR 13.84 15.00 14.00 13.50 13.00 12.50 12.25 12.00
Israel USD/ILS 3.66 3.70 3.60 3.55 3.50 3.45 3.45 3.40
                   
Russia USD/RUB 67.13 64.00 65.00 66.00 65.00 66.00 67.00 67.00
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 379 360 365 370 370 360 365 370
Ukraine USD/UAH 28.08 29.50 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.50 31.00 31.00
                   
Brazil USD/BRL 3.73 3.80 3.40 3.55 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.80
Mexico USD/MXN 19.05 19.00 18.80 19.20 19.50 19.30 19.00 19.00
Argentina USD/ARS 37.18 39.50 41.90 44.00 46.00 47.50 49.00 52.00
Chile USD/CLP 674 675 665 650 635 645 650 660
Colombia USD/COP 3148 3100 3050 3000 2980 2950 2950 2900
Peru USD/PEN 3.34 3.34 3.34 3.33 3.33 3.31 3.32 3.35
                   
China USD/CNY 6.77 7.10 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.20 7.00
Hong Kong USD/HKD 7.84 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80
India USD/INR 70.93 72.50 73.80 71.00 69.00 68.00 68.00 65.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 14125 14400 14550 14400 14350 14300 14200 14050
Korea USD/KRW 1123 1130 1140 1125 1115 1110 1110 1000
Malaysia USD/MYR 4.10 4.16 4.20 4.16 4.12 4.12 4.10 4.00
Philippines USD/PHP 52.20 53.64 53.89 54.13 54.24 54.71 54.44 54.79
Singapore USD/SGD 1.35 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.35 1.31 1.28
Taiwan USD/TWD 30.85 30.60 30.60 30.40 30.40 30.20 29.00 28.60
Thailand USD/THB 31.94 33.00 33.30 33.10 32.80 32.60 32.40 32.00