Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Latest forecast update: 16 May 2019

Growth (GDP)

%YoY 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 4Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
World (USD) 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.4
US 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.5 1.8
Japan 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7
Germany 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.9
France 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.3
UK 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5
Italy 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.5
Canada 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 2.0
Australia 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.8 1.7 2.5
New Zealand 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.4
               
Eurozone 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.2
Austria 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.0 1.6
Spain 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.6
Netherlands 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.8 1.7
Belgium 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2
Ireland 3.8 2.5 2.4 - 6.8 3.8 3.1
Greece 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.8
Portugal 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.6
Switzerland 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.5 2.5 1.1 1.3
Sweden 1.7 1.3 1.7 0.8 2.5 1.4 1.5
Norway 2.4 2.3 2.5 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.8
               
Bulgaria 3.4 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.1 3.4 3.4
Croatia 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.2
Czech Republic 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.9 2.3 2.6
Hungary 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.4 4.9 4.3 3.0
Poland 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.6 5.1 4.1 3.3
Romania 5.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 4.1 2.7 2.1
Turkey -1.8 -2.2 0.2 1.0 2.6 -0.7 2.5
Serbia 2.3 3.5 3.9 3.7 4.4 3.7 3.6
               
Russia 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.1 2.3 1.0 1.5
Kazakhstan 3.5 3.0 2.9 3.2 4.1 3.3 3.2
Ukraine 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.0
               
Brazil 0.8 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.1 1.3 3.0
Mexico 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.3 2.1
               
China 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.2
Hong Kong 0.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.0 1.8 2.5
India 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.2
Indonesia 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2
Korea 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.7 1.5 2.7
Malaysia 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 5.0
Philippines 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.4
Singapore 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 3.2 1.9 2.3
Taiwan 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.6 1.8 2.0
Thailand 3.1 3.1 4.0 5.2 4.1 3.8 4.0

Inflation (CPI)

%YoY 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 4Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
World 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7
US 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4
Japan 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.8
Germany 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.7
France 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.6
UK 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.2
Italy 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2
Canada 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.0
Australia 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.5 2.0
New Zealand 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.7
               
Eurozone 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.6
Austria 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0
Spain 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7
Netherlands 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.7 2.7 2.0
Belgium 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.8
Ireland 0.9 1.0 1.0 - 0.8 1.0 1.4
Greece 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1
Portugal 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.5
Switzerland 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7
Sweden 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.8
Norway 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.0
               
Bulgaria 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.1
Croatia 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.7
Czech Republic 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.0
Hungary 3.7 3.6 3.1 3.4 2.8 3.3 3.1
Poland 1.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.9
Romania 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.5
Turkey 19.7 19.3 13.0 15.9 20.3 15.9 10.7
Serbia 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.8
               
Russia 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.6 2.9 5.0 4.0
Kazakhstan 4.8 5.5 5.7 5.6 6.0 5.6 5.5
Ukraine¹ 8.6 9.5 8.8 8.0 11.0 8.9 7.5
               
Brazil 4.6 3.6 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.0
Mexico 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.5 4.8 3.5 3.8
               
China 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.5
Hong Kong 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8
India 2.5 3.0 4.1 5.5 3.4 4.5 5.0
Indonesia 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.4
Korea 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.6 0.6 1.6
Malaysia -0.3 0.6 1.6 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.8
Philippines 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.3 5.4 3.4 3.4
Singapore 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.0
Taiwan 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.8 1.0
Thailand 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4
               
               
Oil Forecasts (avg)              
$/bbl 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 4Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
Brent 64.0 68.0 69.0 73.0 72.0 69.0 74.0
WTI 55.0 59.0 61.0 65.0 65.0 60.0 67.0

Source: ING ¹ Quarterly forecasts are eop; yearly forecasts are average over the year

Updated 16 May 2019

Policy rates

(%) 16/05/2019 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F
US¹ 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
UK 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
Sweden -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25
Norway 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75
Canada 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Australia 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25
New Zealand 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50
                 
Czech Republic 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90
Poland 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Romania 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
Turkey 24.00 24.00 24.00 22.00 20.75 19.50 18.25 17.00
Serbia 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
                 
Russia 7.75 7.80 7.50 7.30 7.00 6.80 6.50 6.50
Kazakhstan 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.80 8.50 8.30 8.30 8.00
Ukraine 17.50 17.50 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.50 13.00
                 
Brazil 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Mexico 8.25 8.25 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50
                 
China* 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55
India 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25 6.25
Indonesia 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
Korea 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75
Malaysia 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Philippines 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.00
Taiwan 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38
Thailand 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

¹Fed fund rates are between 0.00-0.25

*PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate

3 month rates

(%) 16/05/2019 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F
US 2.52 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.40
Eurozone -0.34 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30
Japan 0.07 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05
UK 0.82 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05 1.10 1.30 1.35
Switzerland -0.67 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
Sweden -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.10
Norway 1.47 1.60 1.80 1.90 1.90 1.90 2.10 2.20
Canada 2.02 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15
Australia 1.58 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.40 1.45 1.50
New Zealand 1.71 1.60 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.75
                 
Croatia 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Czech Republic 2.20 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
Hungary 0.16 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
Poland 1.72 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Romania 3.28 3.20 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.90
Turkey 28.00 25.20 22.80 23.40 22.20 20.50 19.60 18.60
Serbia 2.97 2.90 2.80 2.75 2.70 2.70 2.90 3.00
                 
Russia 7.90 8.30 7.90 7.50 7.30 6.80 6.50 6.50
Kazkhstan 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.25 9.25 9.00
                 
Brazil 6.41 6.60 6.40 6.40 6.50 6.60 6.60 6.60
Mexico 8.42 8.30 7.90 7.40 6.90 6.40 6.40 6.40
                 
China* 2.90 2.95 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.80 2.90 2.90
Hong Kong 2.05 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.55
India 6.37 6.30 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.60 6.60 6.60
Indonesia 7.25 7.20 7.15 7.15 7.35 7.20 7.15 7.00
Korea 1.81 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.80 1.95
Malaysia 3.46 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45
Philippines* 4.64 5.25 5.35 5.20 5.20 5.15 5.10 4.90
Singapore 2.04 1.95 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80
Taiwan* 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65
Thailand 1.87 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China; T-bill rate for the Philippines and CP rate for Taiwan; and 3-month interbank rates for others.

10-year yields

(%) 16/05/2019 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F
US: Fed funds 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
3M 2.52 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.40
2Y 2.18 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.30 2.25 2.25
5Y 2.16 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.25 2.20 2.20
10Y 2.38 2.50 2.60 2.45 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.20
30Y 2.82 2.90 3.00 2.85 2.75 2.70 2.70 2.65
                 
EU12: ECB refi* 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3M -0.31 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30
2Y -0.67 -0.55 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.55 -0.55 -0.55
5Y -0.51 -0.40 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.40 -0.40
10Y -0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.15
30Y 0.53 0.75 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.80 0.80
                 
Japan -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
France 0.29 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.50
Italy 2.71 2.65 2.75 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.90 2.90
Spain 0.91 1.10 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.30 1.25 1.25
UK 1.05 1.20 1.35 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Netherlands 0.09 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.30
Belgium 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.55 0.55
Austria 0.21 0.40 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.45 0.45
Ireland 0.48 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.70 0.70
Portugal 1.08 1.20 1.40 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.40 1.40
Switzerland -0.38 -0.35 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.30 -0.30
Sweden 0.19 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
Norway 1.68 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.00
Finland 0.13 0.35 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.40
Canada 1.67 1.70 1.75 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.00
Australia 1.64 1.70 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.90
New Zealand 1.78 1.80 1.75 1.80 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05
                 
Bulgaria 0.73 0.75 0.70 0.70 0.65 0.65 0.60 0.60
Croatia 1.77 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80
Czech Rep 1.87 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.70 1.70
Hungary 3.13 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80
Poland 2.87 2.95 3.05 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10
Romania 4.91 4.90 4.90 4.70 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.70
Russia 8.20 8.10 7.90 7.50 7.30 7.10 6.90 6.90
Turkey 19.55 18.70 18.10 17.70 15.70 14.40 13.70 13.70
                 
Brazil 8.87 9.00 8.60 8.40 8.40 8.20 8.20 8.10
Mexico 8.05 8.10 8.00 7.90 7.70 7.60 7.60 7.80
                 
China 3.27 3.20 3.00 2.95 2.95 2.90 2.90 2.85
Hong Kong 1.63 1.60 1.50 1.45 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20
India 7.38 7.50 7.60 7.70 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80
Indonesia 8.00 7.70 7.95 7.79 7.95 7.80 7.65 7.50
Korea 1.82 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.85
Malaysia 3.80 3.65 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.75 3.80 3.80
Philippines 7.66 6.20 6.10 6.00 6.05 5.85 5.95 5.75
Singapore 2.14 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.10 2.20
Taiwan 0.83 0.75 0.80 0.75 0.85 0.80 0.80 0.85
Thailand 2.43 2.45 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.30

*Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields

FX

    16/05/2019 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F
Euro EUR/USD 1.12 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.20
Japan USD/JPY 110 113 110 108 105 103 102 100
UK GBP/USD 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.34 1.36 1.38 1.39 1.41
Japan EUR/JPY 122.86 124.30 123.20 124.20 121.80 120.51 120.36 120.00
UK EUR/GBP 0.87 0.86 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Canada USD/CAD 1.34 1.35 1.34 1.31 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.22
Australia AUD/USD 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70
                   
Switzerland EUR/CHF 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.18
Sweden EUR/SEK 10.75 11.00 10.80 10.60 10.60 10.50 10.50 10.50
Norway EUR/NOK 9.75 9.80 9.70 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.35 9.30
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.47 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46
                   
Bulgaria EUR/BGN 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
Croatia EUR/HRK 7.42 7.37 7.40 7.45 7.42 7.40 7.43 7.45
Serbia EUR/RSD 117.96 118.00 118.00 118.00 118.00 117.50 117.50 117.50
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 25.70 25.80 25.80 26.00 26.20 26.40 26.50 26.50
Hungary EUR/HUF 324 330 325 325 325 325 325 325
Poland EUR/PLN 4.30 4.28 4.31 4.32 4.33 4.34 4.34 4.35
Romania EUR/RON 4.76 4.77 4.80 4.85 4.85 4.87 4.88 4.90
Turkey USD/TRY 6.01 6.30 6.25 6.20 6.27 6.35 6.42 6.50
South Africa USD/ZAR 14.14 14.50 14.75 14.25 14.00 13.50 13.25 13.00
Israel USD/ILS 3.57 3.60 3.55 3.50 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.40
                   
Russia USD/RUB 64.50 66.00 67.00 66.00 67.00 68.00 68.00 68.00
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 379 375 380 380 375 380 384 385
Ukraine USD/UAH 26.42 27.00 27.50 28.00 29.50 30.50 30.24 30.00
                   
Brazil USD/BRL 4.00 4.00 3.40 3.60 3.70 3.70 3.80 3.80
Mexico USD/MXN 19.02 19.00 19.00 19.40 19.50 19.50 19.60 19.70
Argentina USD/ARS 44.99 46.20 49.00 51.50 53.00 55.50 58.00 60.00
Chile USD/CLP 691 690 680 670 665 660 670 660
Colombia USD/COP 3286 3280 3250 3150 3100 3100 3050 3050
Peru USD/PEN 3.32 3.32 3.30 3.29 3.30 3.28 3.27 3.29
                   
China USD/CNY 6.88 6.75 6.80 6.75 6.70 6.60 6.70 6.70
Hong Kong USD/HKD 7.85 7.84 7.83 7.82 7.81 7.80 7.80 7.80
India USD/INR 70.03 70.30 70.70 69.80 69.50 68.50 68.50 68.30
Indonesia USD/IDR 14452 14430 14450 14400 14300 14200 14150 14050
Korea USD/KRW 1191 1190 1180 1150 1150 1135 1130 1120
Malaysia USD/MYR 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.16 4.16 4.15 4.14 4.12
Philippines USD/PHP 52.49 52.30 53.10 53.60 53.94 54.04 54.11 54.29
Singapore USD/SGD 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.33
Taiwan USD/TWD 31.16 30.85 30.90 30.95 31.00 31.05 31.10 31.15
Thailand USD/THB 31.59 31.80 32.00 31.80 31.50 31.00 31.00 31.00