Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Latest forecast update: 18 March 2024

Growth (GDP)

QoQ% Annualised 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
US 3.2 2.4 1.4 -0.7 2.5 2.1 1.2
Japan -0.4 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.3
Germany -1.1 -0.6 0.3 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.0
France -0.1 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 1.3
UK -1.4 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.4 1.2
Italy 0.6 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.0
Canada 1.0 0.4 4.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 1.5
Australia 1.2 1.6 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.5
               
Eurozone 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.4 1.4
Austria 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.4 -0.7 0.0 1.5
Spain 2.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.5 1.8 2.2
Netherlands 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.7 1.4
Belgium 1.6 0.0 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.4
Greece 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.0
Portugal 3.4 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2
Switzerland 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.4
Sweden 0.3 -0.8 0.7 1.3 -0.3 -0.1 1.5
Norway 1.7 0.0 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.9
               
%YoY 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
               
Bulgaria 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.9 3.3
Croatia 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7
Czech Republic -0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 -0.4 1.4 2.2
Hungary 0.0 1.0 2.1 2.1 -0.9 2.1 3.8
Poland 1.0 2.1 3.2 3.3 0.2 3.0 3.5
Romania 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.8 3.0
Turkey 3.9 4.6 2.4 1.6 4.5 2.5 3.5
Serbia 3.8 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.5 3.3 3.5
               
Azerbaijan 1.3 4.0 2.5 2.0 1.1 2.5 2.7
Kazakhstan 5.4 4.5 3.8 5.0 5.1 4.5 5.0
Russia 5.1 3.0 1.5 -0.5 3.6 1.0 0.5
Ukraine 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.2 4.5 3.5 5.0
               
China 5.2 4.0 5.5 4.8 5.2 4.8 4.3
India 7.2 3.3 8.2 7.8 7.2 6.8 7.5
Indonesia 5.0 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.1
Korea 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.8
Philippines 5.6 6.0 6.3 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.1
Singapore 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.1 2.1 2.5
Taiwan 5.1 5.4 2.5 2.3 1.4 3.1 2.3

Inflation (CPI)

Developed Markets (%YoY) 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
US 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.4 4.1 2.6 2.0
Japan 2.9 2.3 2.2 1.8 3.3 2.0 1.5
Germany 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 6.0 2.8 2.1
France 4.2 3.5 3.1 2.9 5.7 3.0 2.0
UK 4.2 3.5 1.6 1.5 4.2 1.8 2.1
Italy 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.9 6.0 1.9 2.0
Canada 3.2 3.0 2.1 1.6 3.8 2.2 2.1
Australia 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.4 5.6 3.6 2.9
               
Eurozone 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.4 5.5 2.6 2.1
Austria 5.2 3.5 3.0 2.9 7.8 2.9 2.1
Spain 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.6 3.0 2.3
Netherlands 0.5 2.6 1.2 0.8 4.1 1.5 2.6
Belgium 0.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 4.0 2.8 2.1
Greece 3.5 3.0 2.2 1.8 4.2 2.2 2.0
Portugal 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 4.4 2.4 2.1
Switzerland 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.3
Sweden 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 6.1 2.6 2.9
Norway 4.5 4.3 3.2 3.8 5.5 3.5 2.5
               
EMEA (%YoY) 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Bulgaria 5.3 3.5 3.3 3.1 9.6 3.4 4.1
Croatia 5.0 4.0 2.9 1.6 8.0 2.7 2.6
Czech Republic 7.2 2.6 2.6 2.4 10.8 2.6 2.0
Hungary 7.8 3.5 4.0 4.3 17.6 4.2 4.2
Poland 6.5 3.3 3.9 4.8 11.4 4.3 4.0
Romania 7.2 7.2 6.0 5.3 10.5 5.8 4.1
Turkey 64.8 66.8 70.3 45.1 53.9 55.9 25.8
Serbia 8.0 5.8 4.7 4.3 12.5 4.7 4.5
               
Azerbaijan 2.8 5.8 1.8 4.2 8.9 4.4 5.5
Kazakhstan 10.4 9.5 8.9 8.4 14.8 8.6 7.0
Russia 7.2 7.6 7.6 6.7 5.9 6.8 4.4
Ukraine 5.5 6.0 8.0 9.5 11.7 8.1 7.3
               
Asia (%YoY) 4Q23F 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
China -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.8 2.0
India 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.2 5.7 4.7 4.8
Indonesia 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.9 3.1 3.5
Korea 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 3.6 2.4 2.0
Philippines 4.3 2.9 3.6 3.4 6.1 3.3 3.6
Singapore 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.0
Taiwan 2.9 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.4

 

*Quarterly forecasts are quarterly average; yearly forecasts are average over the year. HICP for European Union economies

Policy rates

G10 (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
US (upper bound) 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25
Eurozone (refi rate) 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.00
Japan -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25
UK 5.25 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25
Switzerland 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00
Sweden 4.00 3.75 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00
Norway 4.50 4.50 4.25 3.75 3.25 3.00
Canada 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.25
Australia 4.35 4.35 4.10 3.85 3.60 3.35
             
EMEA (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
Czech Republic 6.00 5.00 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.00
Hungary 8.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 5.00
Poland 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.25 4.75
Romania 7.00 6.75 6.25 6.00 5.50 5.00
Turkey 45.00 45.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 22.50
Serbia 6.30 5.80 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.00
             
Azerbaijan 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.25 6.50
Kazakhstan 14.75 13.75 12.75 11.75 11.25 9.75
Russia 16.00 15.50 14.50 13.00 12.00 9.00
Ukraine 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 12.00
             
Asia (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 4Q25F
China* 3.35 3.35 3.25 3.15 3.05 3.05
India 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.50
Indonesia 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.00
Korea 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00
Philippines 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00 6.00 5.50
Taiwan 1.88 1.88 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.60

 

*China 1 Year Loan Prime Rate

3 month rates

G10 (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
US 5.40 5.20 4.65 4.10 3.70 3.20 3.20
Eurozone 3.90 3.70 3.40 3.10 2.90 2.75 2.50
Japan 0.08 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.50
UK 5.25 5.05 4.55 4.15 3.60 3.20 3.20
Switzerland 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Canada 5.10 4.90 4.40 3.80 3.30 3.10 3.20
Australia 4.40 4.40 4.15 3.90 3.65 3.65 3.50
               
EMEA (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
Czech Republic 6.05 5.05 4.05 3.60 3.10 3.10 3.10
Hungary 7.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 4.95 4.15
Poland 5.80 5.85 5.85 5.82 5.45 5.28 4.92
Romania 6.10 5.60 5.30 5.00 4.80 4.60 4.50
Turkey 45.22 43.76 40.03 36.93 32.73 28.34 22.04
Serbia 5.60 5.50 5.30 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20
               
Kazakhstan 14.95 13.95 12.95 11.95 11.45 10.95 9.95
Russia 15.75 15.25 14.20 12.70 11.50 10.50 8.50
               
Asia (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
China* 2.25 2.20 2.20 2.15 2.15 2.10 2.05
India 7.25 7.15 6.90 6.65 6.40 6.25 5.75
Indonesia 7.00 6.98 6.73 6.48 6.23 6.30 6.00
Korea 3.65 3.50 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.25 3.25
Philippines* 5.70 5.50 5.30 5.10 5.00 5.20 4.75
Singapore 4.00 3.85 3.70 3.50 3.50 3.20 2.50
Taiwan* 1.50 1.50 1.45 1.38 1.38 1.30 1.25

 

*3-month Shanghai interbank rate for China; T-bill rate for the Philippines; and 3-month interbank rates for others

10-year yields

G10 (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
US: Fed funds 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25 3.25
3M 5.40 5.20 4.65 4.10 3.70 3.20 3.20
2Y 4.45 3.80 3.45 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.35
5Y 4.25 3.70 3.40 3.35 3.50 3.65 3.70
10Y 4.25 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.00
30Y 4.35 3.95 3.80 3.90 4.15 4.40 4.40
               
ECB refi* 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00
3M 3.90 3.70 3.40 3.10 2.90 2.75 2.50
2Y 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35
5Y 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.25 2.25 2.30 2.40
10Y 2.30 2.10 2.10 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.50
30Y 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.80
               
Japan 0.70 0.80 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25
France 2.80 2.65 2.65 2.85 2.85 2.95 3.05
Italy 3.80 3.80 3.75 3.95 3.95 4.05 4.15
Spain 3.20 3.15 3.10 3.30 3.30 3.40 3.50
UK 4.05 3.85 3.55 3.65 3.65 3.75 4.00
Netherlands 2.65 2.45 2.45 2.65 2.65 2.75 2.85
Belgium 2.90 2.75 2.75 2.95 2.95 3.05 3.15
Austria 2.80 2.65 2.65 2.85 2.85 2.95 3.05
Ireland 2.70 2.55 2.55 2.75 2.75 2.85 2.95
Portugal 3.05 2.95 2.95 3.15 3.15 3.25 3.35
Switzerland 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.90 0.90 1.00 1.10
Sweden 2.30 2.20 2.20 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.70
Norway 3.65 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.55 3.75 3.75
Finland 2.80 2.65 2.65 2.85 2.85 2.95 3.05
Canada 3.40 3.20 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.75
Australia 4.00 3.75 3.60 3.60 3.75 4.00 4.00
               
EMEA (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
Bulgaria 4.30 4.30 4.20 4.30 4.30 4.10 4.00
Czech Republic 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Hungary 6.25 6.35 6.25 6.10 6.15 5.90 5.70
Poland 5.50 5.55 5.45 5.25 4.99 4.92 4.82
Romania 6.50 6.40 6.20 6.20 5.90 5.80 5.70
Russia 12.50 12.30 12.20 12.00 11.50 10.70 8.30
Turkey 25.61 24.40 23.86 23.33 22.71 21.28 20.02
               
Asia (%) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 1Q25F 2Q25F 4Q25F
China 2.55 2.25 2.20 2.20 2.55 2.50 2.40
India 7.00 6.80 6.50 6.20 6.40 6.60 6.80
Indonesia 6.60 6.70 6.60 6.45 6.50 6.20 6.00
Korea 3.35 3.30 3.10 3.25 3.25 3.50 4.00
Philippines 6.40 6.30 6.00 6.10 6.00 5.90 5.20
Singapore 3.00 2.90 2.90 3.00 2.80 2.50 2.00
Taiwan 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.30

 

*Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields

FX

G10 (End period)   1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
Euro EUR/USD 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.12
Japan USD/JPY 148 145 140 130 125
UK GBP/USD 1.23 1.26 1.27 1.30 1.24
Japan EUR/JPY 151.00 160.00 157.00 148.00 140.00
UK EUR/GBP 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.90
Canada USD/CAD 1.35 1.33 1.29 1.28 1.27
Australia AUD/USD 0.65 0.67 0.70 0.69 0.70
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.64 0.64
             
Switzerland EUR/CHF 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.00
Sweden EUR/SEK 11.30 11.10 10.90 10.70 10.50
Norway EUR/NOK 11.30 10.90 10.70 10.50 10.50
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46
             
EMEA (End period)   1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
Serbia EUR/RSD 117.19 117.19 117.18 117.18 117.17
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 24.70 24.50 24.50 24.00 23.00
Hungary EUR/HUF 390.00 395.00 385.00 390.00 385.00
Poland EUR/PLN 4.30 4.22 4.27 4.30 4.35
Romania EUR/RON 4.98 4.98 4.98 5.04 5.09
Turkey USD/TRY 32.05 34.35 36.30 38.00 45.00
South Africa USD/ZAR 18.35 18.75 18.50 18.00 17.00
Israel USD/ILS 3.62 3.70 3.60 3.55 3.20
             
CIS (End period)   1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 455.00 460.00 465.00 470.00 500.00
Russia USD/RUB 87.00 92.00 97.00 105.00 110.00
  EUR/RUB 93.96 101.20 108.64 120.75 123.20
Ukraine USD/UAH 38.00 38.30 38.70 39.00 39.00
             
Latam (End period)   1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
Brazil USD/BRL 4.85 5.00 5.00 4.90 5.00
Mexico USD/MXN 17.00 17.00 16.75 16.75 16.00
Chile USD/CLP 881.00 875.00 850.00 850.00 800.00
             
Asia (End period)   1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 4Q25F
China USD/CNY 7.20 7.14 7.05 7.00 6.80
India USD/INR 83.00 83.00 83.00 82.50 83.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 15700 15600 15300 15000 14700
Korea USD/KRW 1325 1300 1280 1250 1225
Philippines USD/PHP 55.90 55.50 55.10 54.80 54.00
Singapore USD/SGD 1.33 1.30 1.29 1.27 1.26
Taiwan USD/TWD 31.30 30.90 30.75 30.40 29.50

Commodities

Oil and natural gas forecasts (avg) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Brent ($/bbl) 82.00 80.00 82.00 82.00 82.00 80.00
Dutch TTF (EUR/MWh) 27.00 25.00 25.00 41.00 28.00 29.00
Metal Forecasts (avg) 1Q24F 2Q24F 3Q24F 4Q24F 2024F 2025F
Copper 8,400 8,700 8,850 9,000 8,738 9,050
Aluminium 2,220 2,250 2,270 2,300 2,260 2,350
Nickel 16,600 16,800 16,850 17,000 16,813 17,875
Zinc 2,450 2,500 2,550 2,550 2,513 2,625
Lead 2,090 2,100 2,100 2,200 2,123 2,125
Gold 2,035 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,084 2,100
Silver 23.00 23.50 23.50 24.00 23.50 23.50
Iron Ore 125.00 120.00 115.00 110.00 110.00 100.00