December Economic Update: Avoiding Hard Choices

Early signs suggest that 2019 will see lower global growth. Markets have recently been unsettled by US monetary tightening, trade protectionism, unseasonal weather and emerging market troubles. But looking ahead, there are potential upside surprises as well. Read more in our latest economic update

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December Economic Update: Avoiding Hard Choices

Early signs suggest that 2019 will see lower global growth. Markets have recently been unsettled by US monetary tightening, trade protectionism,…

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United Kingdom

US: As good as it gets?

The US continues to perform strongly and wages are finally gathering pace. But protectionism and a weakening global outlook are significant risks for 2019…

Eurozone: Diminishing expectations

While the eurozone’s third-quarter growth was negatively affected by special factors, the rebound in the fourth quarter has so far been rather…

United Kingdom

UK: Three Brexit questions for 2019

The immediate question for the UK in 2019 will be whether the government can gain approval for its Brexit deal. A defeat seems highly likely in December,…

China

China: Rough seas in 2019

The Chinese economy is set to slow down in 2019. The most likely scenario is an escalation of the US-China trade conflict, hurting exporters,…

Japan

Japan: Ready to bounce back

Economic growth in Japan contracted in the third quarter, hit by extensive damage from typhoon Jebi. But the doors are now open for a fourth-quarter…

FX: Patiently waiting on the peak

As 2019 progresses, expect to hear more about a Fed pause. US market interest rates typically turn lower before the top in the Fed cycle. And if…

Rates

Rates: Why EU angst is prompting talk of topping out

European politics, namely Brexit and the dispute between Italy and the EU, is keeping a lid on US 10-year rates. Though we may not have seen market rates…