Report30 November 2018Updated 4 months ago

December Economic Update: Avoiding Hard Choices

Early signs suggest that 2019 will see lower global growth. Markets have recently been unsettled by US monetary tightening, trade protectionism, unseasonal weather and emerging market troubles. But looking ahead, there are potential upside suprises as well. Read more in our latest economic update

Executive summary

As we head into 2019, the global economic outlook is looking more uncertain.

In the US, the cumulative effects of Federal Reserve interest rate increases, fading support from fiscal stimulus and the stronger dollar will contribute to a slowing in growth. 

The eurozone has been negatively affected by special factors in the third quarter and the rebound has been underwhelming in the fourth so far, reducing the chances of a rate hike next year.

Brexit is dominating everything in the UK, as Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to get her deal through parliament. And in Asia, the US-China trade conflict remains a significant risk. 

In this report, we look at the threats and opportunities facing each country, as well as the impact on currencies and interest rates.