THINK economic and financial analysis
THINK
Sustainability
Bundles
6 September 2021

Asia’s race to net-zero: 12.4 trillion dollars and counting

Asia emits half the world's carbon dioxide, but China, Japan and South Korea are now embarking on net-zero carbon plans. How much is this going to cost in terms of new electricity generation capacity? We estimate $12.4tr for just the transport sector alone. Here's our major new report in easily accessible sections

Asia’s race to net-zero: 12.4 trillion dollars and counting

In this bundle

Fed likely to hold rates steady and warn of the risk of delay to cuts
FX
Rates
United States

Fed likely to hold rates steady and warn of the risk of delay to cuts


Robust data has pushed market expectations for the timing of the first cut to December. We still see the chance of a September move

James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA and Chris Turner

US inflation not as bad as feared, but still too hot
United States

US inflation not as bad as feared, but still too hot


Inflation was not as bad as feared, but remains too hot for the Federal Reserve's comfort

James Knightley

Deterioration in Hungarian labour market stalls
Hungary

Deterioration in Hungarian labour market stalls


Hungary’s unemployment rate improved in March, but we think it's too early to declare a full trend reversal

Peter Virovacz and Dávid Szőnyi

Key events in developed markets and EMEA next week

Key events in developed markets and EMEA next week


The highlight in markets next week will be the US jobs report, we expect a cooling to 210,00 jobs in April

James Knightley, Adam Antoniak and 2 others

Markets disappointed with Bank of Japan as yen hits new lows
FX
Japan

Markets disappointed with Bank of Japan as yen hits new lows


Markets are clearly disappointed with the colourless policy guidance

Min Joo Kang and Chris Turner

Eurozone bank lending continues to cautiously recover

Eurozone bank lending continues to cautiously recover


The ECB is on the verge of starting rate cuts and monetary developments are proving no hurdle to doing so

Bert Colijn

CNB preview: 50bp rate cut likely while neutral real rate increases
Czech Republic

CNB preview: 50bp rate cut likely while neutral real rate increases


The CNB will likely cut the key interest rate by 50bp to 5.25% as inflation has fallen towards the 2% target

David Havrlant

Rates Spark: Bonds braced for another inflation pop
Rates

Rates Spark: Bonds braced for another inflation pop


Higher than expected US PCE is pushing global yields up

Benjamin Schroeder, Padhraic Garvey, CFA and Michiel Tukker

FX Daily: The dollar should be stronger
FX

FX Daily: The dollar should be stronger


The divergence of FX markets from rates and equities generally doesn’t last long, and we expect a delayed USD strengthening

Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
Japan
Singapore

Asia Morning Bites


BoJ policy decision is the main focus in Asia ahead of tonight's US inflation data

Robert Carnell, Min Joo Kang and Nicholas Mapa

US GDP growth slows markedly, and inflation remains the focus
United States

US GDP growth slows markedly, and inflation remains the focus


US GDP growth disappoints, but markets are focusing on the higher inflation print

James Knightley

Decarbonisation and climate resiliency step into the spotlight for the US buildings sector
Energy
Real estate
Retail, Construction & Manufacturing
Sustainability
United States

Decarbonisation and climate resiliency step into the spotlight for the US buildings sector


Reducing emissions from buildings has become a crucial step in the path to net zero, but complexity can arise when sustainability meets economic and policy…

Coco Zhang and James Knightley

Japanese FX intervention: Primed and Ready
FX

Japanese FX intervention: Primed and Ready


Markets are now on very high alert for Japanese FX intervention

Chris Turner

FX Daily: When the second decimal place counts
FX

FX Daily: When the second decimal place counts


Today's focus will be on the US core price deflator and what it means for the Fed and the dollar

Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky

German consumers take an optimistic turn
Germany

German consumers take an optimistic turn


After a long period of disappointing macro news out of Germany, optimism has finally returned

Carsten Brzeski

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
Indonesia
South Korea

Asia Morning Bites


Korea's 1Q24 GDP beat estimates

Robert Carnell, Nicholas Mapa and Min Joo Kang

Rates Spark: Upbeat sentiment helps yields higher
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Upbeat sentiment helps yields higher


Positive risk sentiment is helping yields up. The US PCE data is likely to drive yields in the rest of the week

Benjamin Schroeder, Michiel Tukker and Padhraic Garvey, CFA

AI services will become more affordable over time
TMT
AI

AI services will become more affordable over time


We expect prices of AI services to come down, in line with historical developments of ICT hardware prices

Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Countries must embrace AI or risk missing out on strong ICT growth
TMT
AI

Countries must embrace AI or risk missing out on strong ICT growth


We think data centre capacity will grow by 10% a year, facilitating growth of the market for AI services

Jan Frederik Slijkerman

AI frontrunners will benefit most, with Microsoft in the lead
TMT
AI

AI frontrunners will benefit most, with Microsoft in the lead


We expect many sector-specific AI solutions to emerge. Given economies of scale, early leaders like Microsoft will likely benefit most

Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Data is the new gold for AI development
TMT
AI

Data is the new gold for AI development


We expect that the owners of private data will build proprietary solutions, opening a new source of revenue

Jan Frederik Slijkerman

AI revolution driven by new supercomputers
TMT
AI

AI revolution driven by new supercomputers


The AI revolution is driven by spectacular increases in computing speeds. Semiconductors are therefore an important element in the AI value chain

Jan Frederik Slijkerman

The purchasing power of Hungarian wages is slowing
Hungary

The purchasing power of Hungarian wages is slowing


Hungary’s real wage growth remains close to 10% on a yearly basis

Peter Virovacz and Dávid Szőnyi

The Commodities Feed: Oil risk premium eases
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Oil risk premium eases


Geopolitical risks continue to ease

Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson

FX Daily: Survey divergence hits the dollar
FX

FX Daily: Survey divergence hits the dollar


We’d be cautious about jumping into a bearish dollar narrative on the back of soft activity surveys

Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner

Rates Spark: The stakes get raised
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: The stakes get raised


Improving eurozone growth picture could lead to a more gradual easing path

Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
Australia
Indonesia
Japan
...

Asia Morning Bites


Australia inflation and BI policy meeting today

Robert Carnell, Min Joo Kang and Nicholas Mapa

Optimism returns to Germany as the Ifo jumps again

Optimism returns to Germany as the Ifo jumps again


April Ifo index adds to encouraging macro signals from Germany

Carsten Brzeski

National Bank of Hungary Review: Gentle braking
Hungary

National Bank of Hungary Review: Gentle braking


The National Bank of Hungary delivered a 50bp rate cut and emphasises patience going forward

Peter Virovacz and Dávid Szőnyi

North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the sector's resilience
Retail, Construction & Manufacturing

North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the sector’s resilience


The Outlook for the North America construction sector is mixed, although the US could outperform

James Knightley and Coco Zhang

Poland's sluggish recovery continues as consumption sees a gradual rebound
Poland

Poland’s sluggish recovery continues as consumption sees a gradual rebound


We think that Poland's economic recovery should gain some momentum later this year

Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak

Economics Live: China's Great Transition and what it means for metals demand

Economics Live: China’s Great Transition and what it means for metals demand


Join ING’s economists and strategists on 29 April for a live discussion of China's Great Transition and what it means for metals demand

Ewa Manthey, Lynn Song and Rebecca Byrne

Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth

Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth


Recent data is painting a reasonably upbeat picture of the eurozone economy

Bert Colijn

The Commodities Feed: Middle East tensions ease
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Middle East tensions ease


Oil is trading in a narrow range as signs of easing tension in the Middle East emerge

Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson

Taxonomy Disclosures: A slow start, but a start nonetheless
Financial Institutions
Sustainability

Taxonomy Disclosures: A slow start, but a start nonetheless


The EU Taxonomy aims to prevent 'greenwashing' and help people make sustainable investments

Marine Leleux

FX Daily: Sterling makes its move
FX

FX Daily: Sterling makes its move


Sterling is starting to show some underperformance following a few dovish comments from internal MPC members

Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
Australia
India
Singapore
...

Asia Morning Bites


India's PMI data and inflation from Hong Kong and Singapore due

Robert Carnell, Lynn Song and Nicholas Mapa

Rates Spark: Diverging ECB views increases uncertainty
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Diverging ECB views increases uncertainty


Diverging views in the ECB could lead markets to reconsider rate cuts beyond June

Michiel Tukker, Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic Garvey, CFA

Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovish
FX
Rates
United Kingdom

Bank of England set to cut rates before the Fed as officials turn dovish


We expect the first UK rate cut in August, but it could come in June

James Smith, Chris Turner and Michiel Tukker

Polish construction activity takes a dismal turn in March
Retail, Construction & Manufacturing
Poland

Polish construction activity takes a dismal turn in March


Polish construction output plunged in March, and we don't think the outlook appears too bright for 2024 as a whole

Piotr Poplawski

Poland's labour market remains tight
Poland

Poland’s labour market remains tight


Polish labour market conditions are showing continued strength despite signs of cooling down

Piotr Poplawski

Weak production in Poland bodes ill for trading partners
Poland

Weak production in Poland bodes ill for trading partners


Weak production in Poland bodes ill for trading partners like Germany and the CEE region

Rafal Benecki

FX Daily: Data to regain centrality
FX

FX Daily: Data to regain centrality


US GDP and PCE may come in relatively strong and could prevent dollar momentum from softening much

Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner

The Commodities Feed: Specs boost Brent longs
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Specs boost Brent longs


The oil market gave back all of its gains after Iran downplayed Israel’s limited retaliatory attack

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
China
Indonesia
South Korea
...

Asia Morning Bites


South Korea's advance-release trade data showed exports sustaining growth. China announces their loan prime rate and Indonesia reports March trade data

Robert Carnell, Lynn Song and 2 others

United States

Watch: Why we’ve made big changes to our US outlook


US interest rate expectations have been slashed

James Knightley

Key events in developed markets and EMEA next week

Key events in developed markets and EMEA next week


US GDP for the first quarter and the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, are the main releases to watch

Adam Antoniak , James Knightley and 2 others

FX Daily: Middle East turmoil strengthens dollar position
FX

FX Daily: Middle East turmoil strengthens dollar position


Safe haven currencies are leading the pack, and there are now risks of a more structural bearish turn on EUR/USD

Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner

The Commodities Feed: Oil surges on escalation fears
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Oil surges on escalation fears


Oil prices have surged early morning Friday with unconfirmed reports of explosions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, cocoa prices hit new record highs after…

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

Cooler inflation ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting
Japan

Cooler inflation ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting


Consumer prices eased but it is likely to have little impact on the BoJ's policy normalisation

Min Joo Kang

Rates Spark: The lost term premium to return
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: The lost term premium to return


Dwindling rate cut expectations coincide with higher Treasury yields, as does the need for a proper term premium

Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker

National Bank of Hungary Preview: Now is not the time to surprise markets
Hungary

National Bank of Hungary Preview: Now is not the time to surprise markets


The National Bank of Hungary could slow down the pace of rate cuts to 50bp in April

Peter Virovacz and Dávid Szőnyi

FX Daily: Prospects grow of joint Asian FX intervention
FX

FX Daily: Prospects grow of joint Asian FX intervention


Speculation is growing that Japan and Korea may jointly intervene to sell FX

Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky

Geopolitical conflict threatens yet another shipping choke point
Logistics & Automotive
Trade

Geopolitical conflict threatens yet another shipping choke point


The Strait of Hormuz is now in focus as global trade concerns mount

Inga Fechner, Rico Luman and Warren Patterson

Asia Week Ahead: BoJ meeting and inflation readings from Australia, Japan and Singapore
Asia week ahead
Australia
China
India
...

Asia Week Ahead: BoJ meeting and inflation readings from Australia, Japan and Singapore


What to expect from Asia in the week ahead

Robert Carnell, Min Joo Kang and 2 others

Rates Spark: Differing degrees of decoupling
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Differing degrees of decoupling


ECB pricing is relatively firm whereas the BoE is more aligned with US expectations

Benjamin Schroeder, Michiel Tukker and Padhraic Garvey, CFA

Middle East escalation boosts oil supply risks
Commodities, Food & Agri
Energy

Middle East escalation boosts oil supply risks


The oil market continues to be supported by ongoing tension in the Middle East. Significant risks remain

Warren Patterson

Turkey's current account deficit considerably narrower in February
Turkey

Turkey’s current account deficit considerably narrower in February


Monthly current account figures released by the Central Bank of Turkey

Muhammet Mercan

A falling euro is not the ECB’s biggest headache
FX

A falling euro is not the ECB’s biggest headache


A weaker euro and higher oil prices limit the ECB's room for rate-cut manoeuvres

Carsten Brzeski and Francesco Pesole

Sticky UK services inflation pushes back rate cut hopes
United Kingdom

Sticky UK services inflation pushes back rate cut hopes


Services inflation is proving stickier than the Bank of England had hoped 

James Smith

FX Daily: The big unwinding
FX

FX Daily: The big unwinding


Carry trades are being rapidly unwound as volatility starts to pick up again.

Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner

FX Talking: Go your own way
Report FX
FX Talking

FX Talking: Go your own way


All of the latest from our team on what could be on the cards for the FX market across the globe

Chris Turner

Download PDF
G10 FX Talking: The dollar's divergent path
FX
FX Talking

G10 FX Talking: The dollar’s divergent path


After scaling back our expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, EUR/USD looks more likely to be capped at 1.10

Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole

EMEA FX Talking: The zloty story continues to look good
FX
FX Talking

EMEA FX Talking: The zloty story continues to look good


The stronger dollar is starting to cause some position unwinds in widely backed trades, such as the Polish zloty

Chris Turner, Dmitry Dolgin and 5 others

Asia FX Talking: Renminbi remains under pressure
FX
FX Talking

Asia FX Talking: Renminbi remains under pressure


Asian FX has really suffered at the hands of the stronger dollar and pressure is growing on the renminbi

Min Joo Kang , Nicholas Mapa and 2 others

Latam FX Talking: Chile's peso looks vulnerable after aggressive rate cuts
FX
FX Talking

Latam FX Talking: Chile’s peso looks vulnerable after aggressive rate cuts


The stronger dollar is starting to expose some weaknesses in the Latam space

Chris Turner

FX Talking: Forecasts table
FX
FX Talking

FX Talking: Forecasts table


The latest FX forecasts from our team

Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner

The Commodities Feed: Oil remains in limbo
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Oil remains in limbo


Oil prices remain in limbo as the market waits to see how Israel responds to Iran’s recent attack

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
Japan
Singapore

Asia Morning Bites


Japan's exports surprise on upside. Singapore NODX much weaker

Robert Carnell and Min Joo Kang

Rates Spark: Powell pivot makes 5% more probable on the 10yr
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Powell pivot makes 5% more probable on the 10yr


The US 10yr is on a path to 5%, and Chair Powell does not object

Benjamin Schroeder, Padhraic Garvey, CFA and Michiel Tukker

UK wage growth proves sticky despite rising unemployment
United Kingdom

UK wage growth proves sticky despite rising unemployment


Wage growth is temporarily stuck in the 6% area and that's another reason to think the BoE will wait until August to cut rates for the first time

James Smith

FX Daily: CNY depreciation risk adds to bullish dollar tone
FX

FX Daily: CNY depreciation risk adds to bullish dollar tone


Weakness in the renminbi is adding to the overall strong dollar tone

Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky

China's first quarter 2024 GDP beat forecasts as investment picks up
China

China’s first quarter 2024 GDP beat forecasts as investment picks up


1Q24 China economic data review

Lynn Song

The Commodities Feed: Wait-and-see mode
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Wait-and-see mode


Oil Markets are in wait-and-see mode following developments in the Middle East. Where oil prices go next will largely depend on Israel’s response to…

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

Asia Morning Bites
China

Asia Morning Bites


China data deluge due today

Robert Carnell and Lynn Song

Rates Spark: Rates see near-term geopolitical risks averted
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Rates see near-term geopolitical risks averted


Bonds retraced earlier risk-off buying as impact from Iran attack seems contained

Benjamin Schroeder, Padhraic Garvey, CFA and Michiel Tukker

US household spending holds firm
United States

US household spending holds firm


Remarkably strong retail sales numbers for March means the Federal Reserve is in no position to carry through with interest rate cuts anytime soon

James Knightley

Construction companies see efficiency gains due to milder winters
Retail, Construction & Manufacturing
Sustainability

Construction companies see efficiency gains due to milder winters


How climate change is impacting Europe's construction sector

Maurice van Sante

Polish CPI revised upwards; core and services inflation remain high
Poland

Polish CPI revised upwards; core and services inflation remain high


Poland's inflation to bounce back from current lows

Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak

Decent eurozone production figures are no break from a weak trend

Decent eurozone production figures are no break from a weak trend


The overall trend of declining production is ongoing

Bert Colijn

What new metal sanctions on Russia mean for global trade
Commodities, Food & Agri

What new metal sanctions on Russia mean for global trade


The US and UK impose sanctions on the use of Russian metal on exchanges

Ewa Manthey

FX Daily: Limited follow-through from Iranian attack
FX

FX Daily: Limited follow-through from Iranian attack


Market reaction to Iran's attack on Israel has been muted

Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky

The Commodities Feed: Uncertainty and risks build in the Middle East
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Uncertainty and risks build in the Middle East


Oil price action this morning is fairly muted despite Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
China
Japan
South Korea

Asia Morning Bites


Strong Japanese core machine orders data plus China's 1-year lending rate out on Monday

Robert Carnell, Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang

Poland’s current account surplus narrows in February, but trade turnover rebounds slightly
Poland

Poland’s current account surplus narrows in February, but trade turnover rebounds slightly


Finally, there is some good news in Poland's foreign trade data for February

Leszek Kasek

Key events in developed markets and EMEA next week
Key Events
United Kingdom
United States

Key events in developed markets and EMEA next week


We'll be keeping an eye out for retail data in the US and inflation figures in the UK next week

James Knightley and James Smith

AI productivity gains may be smaller than you’re expecting
TMT
AI

AI productivity gains may be smaller than you’re expecting


Productivity gains generated by AI at macro level will be significant, but smaller than some expect

Charlotte de Montpellier and Inga Fechner

Indonesia's growth momentum hinges on export recovery
Indonesia

Indonesia’s growth momentum hinges on export recovery


Why we think Indonesia's baseline growth outlook remains positive overall

Nicholas Mapa

FX Daily: From Fed dependence to Fed divergence
FX

FX Daily: From Fed dependence to Fed divergence


The dollar momentum is consolidating after the ECB and Bank of Canada have signalled a desire to diverge from the Fed

Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner

UK economy starts to rebound as outlook brightens
United Kingdom

UK economy starts to rebound as outlook brightens


The UK economy grew for the second consecutive month in February

James Smith

Bank of Korea: Hawkish pause extended, but shift in communication points to easing
South Korea

Bank of Korea: Hawkish pause extended, but shift in communication points to easing


The BoK extends hawkish pause but hints at easing in 2H24

Min Joo Kang

WASDE update: A largely bearish affair
Commodities, Food & Agri

WASDE update: A largely bearish affair


Grain markets sold off yesterday, after what was seen as a fairly disappointing WASDE release from the USDA

Warren Patterson

The Commodities Feed: Gas rallies on supply risks
Commodities daily

The Commodities Feed: Gas rallies on supply risks


European natural gas prices surged higher yesterday on the back of renewed supply risks after a Russian attack on Ukrainian natural gas infrastructure

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey

Monetary Authority of Singapore retains all policy settings but GDP disappoints
Singapore

Monetary Authority of Singapore retains all policy settings but GDP disappoints


MAS holds rates while first quarter GDP disappoints

Nicholas Mapa

Asia Morning Bites
Asia Morning Bites
China
Singapore
South Korea

Asia Morning Bites


China trade out today plus Monetary Authority of Singapore and Bank of Korea decisions

Lynn Song , Min Joo Kang and Nicholas Mapa

Rates Spark: Rates markets unmoved by Lagarde
Rates
Rates Spark

Rates Spark: Rates markets unmoved by Lagarde


ECB is opening the door to a rate cut in June but little forward guidance is given after that

Benjamin Schroeder, Michiel Tukker and Padhraic Garvey, CFA

ECB's press conference signals its first cut will be hawkish

ECB’s press conference signals its first cut will be hawkish


The timing of the ECB's first rate cut isn't a done deal yet, but we think it's set to be a hawkish move

Carsten Brzeski

Asia week ahead: China data deluge and Japan's inflation report
Asia week ahead
China
Japan

Asia week ahead: China data deluge and Japan’s inflation report


Next week, China reports GDP while Japan releases inflation numbers

Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang

ECB officially opens the door to a June rate cut

ECB officially opens the door to a June rate cut


The ECB has officially opened the door to a June rate cut

Carsten Brzeski

Services inflation heats up in Hungary
Hungary

Services inflation heats up in Hungary


We think Hungarian inflation is on the verge of two rounds of acceleration later this year

Peter Virovacz and Dávid Szőnyi

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