April Economic Update: Bigger things than the Suez ship are still firmly stuck in the mud

Ever Given leaves supply chain disruption in its wake

With the Suez Canal open again, a stretched world trade system can’t catch up overnight, increasing the disruption to supply chains

US: All systems go

Consumer spending is supported by stimulus, investment is buoyed by strong order books, and jobs growth is set to soar as the economy reopens in the…

Eurozone: Flip-flopping towards recovery

Economic sentiment in the eurozone is clearly improving, though new lockdown measures still point to a weak start to the second quarter. Pipeline…

UK: A mixed recovery story

The news on the UK's vaccine rollout and Covid-19 strategy is, for now at least, still fairly promising. That bodes well for a second-quarter growth…

China: Revising our USD/CNY forecast

Exchange rate reform has shown that USD/CNY can be quite volatile, which is why we are revising our USD/CNY forecasts. In this note, we discuss the…

Asia and the reflation trade

A lot has been written about the possible impact of rising US Treasury yields on equities and other risk assets, but what about bond markets in Asia? How…

CEE: Some Like It Hot

Covid cases are rising, lockdowns are extended yet the growth outlook still points to a rebound from late in the second quarter and beyond. With CPI above…

FX markets: It seems like the euro is always stuck in second gear

Recovery trades in the FX market have been slowed by the pincer movement of a delayed European recovery on the one hand and by early Fed tightening…

Rates: Some inflation with your recovery, sir?

The context could not be more stark; a 10% increase in US nominal GDP versus a sub-2% 10yr yield. The first bit is virtually nailed on, and comes with…

The greening of monetary policy

Central banks around the globe are currently investigating how to join the fight against climate change. Here's what they're already doing and…

Covid-19 hits European cohesion

Covid-19 has not only had an unequal impact on public health, it also threatens to spread future economic inequality and put European cohesion at risk.…

Container and shipping shortage piles pressure on prices

The container and shipping shortages, a surge in commodities demand, and protectionist measures add to inflationary pressures worldwide as the pandemic…

Brexit: Taking stock after a turbulent start to 2021

Some of the initial trade disruptions from the new UK-EU relationship has undoubtedly cleared since January, though the effect of new paperwork is clearly…