ING Monthly: There’s nothing normal about the global economy

There's nothing normal about the global economy

Markets are suggesting we're returning to some sort of normality despite the ongoing carnage in Ukraine. I think they're wrong. Europe's…

Ukraine could be more of a game-changer for Europe than Covid-19

The war in Ukraine has completely reshuffled the cards in terms of security, supply chains and energy provision. This is likely to lead to lower growth…

Three scenarios for energy prices and the global economy

Our new base case has oil prices staying above $100/barrel throughout 2022, while gas prices stay elevated as the EU competes for LNG supply. That's…

Slowdown risks mount as the Fed hits the brakes

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and signalled that we should be prepared for much more to come as it seeks to get inflation and inflation…

The eurozone will struggle to avoid a temporary drop in GDP growth

The eurozone recovery is likely to come to a standstill on the back of the fall-out from the war in Ukraine. A multitude of adverse shocks is set to push…

UK set for negative growth as cost of living crisis bites

We're now pencilling in negative growth for the second quarter as health spending falls and the cost of living squeeze begins to really bite. The Bank…

China still focused on its zero-Covid strategy

China's central bank failed to lower interest rates after strong economic data in the first two months of the year. We keep our call for a targeted…

Net energy channel dominates Asia's response to the Ukraine war

Of the various channels we wrote about last month which could affect Asia's economies, the net energy balance is so far the most dominant. Inflation…

High inflation in Central and Eastern Europe calls for higher rates despite…

Despite the downgrade in GDP growth forecasts across the region, in our view, additional inflationary pressures and the need for higher interest rates…

Euro focus: No more economic trophies for Germany; stagflation beckons

The year started with the prospects of Europe becoming a growth champion. However, the war in Ukraine has postponed a strong economic rebound once again…

ECB under pressure with inflation set to stay high

The Ukraine war has created another supply shock on top of an already high inflation rate. That causes second-round effects to become an even bigger risk…

Central bank divergence is set to magnify as US dramatically outpaces Europe

We now expect multiple consecutive 50 basis point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, taking the funds rate to 3% by early next year. Europe, by…

Europe begins to wean itself off Russian gas

Europe has taken its first steps to reduce its dependency on Russian gas. We estimate that it can substitute 55% of it on the supply side, mostly with…

The war in Ukraine is putting global supply chains to the test – again

Even before the war began, supply chain frictions had only improved marginally from the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, expect even longer-lasting disruptions, a…

Fiscal policy will remain accommodative, but prudence is not out of the door

How accommodative will eurozone fiscal policy get? In the short run, probably not enough to avoid a marked slowdown or even recession. In the long run, it…

Rates: What curve inversion tells us

So the US curve has inverted, or at least in parts. We'll be a bit picky and assert that a 2/5yr inversion is the better predictor of recession; it…

FX: Time to reconnect with rates and fundamentals

Investors have turned increasingly optimistic about a de-escalation of the Ukraine conflict. With not much geopolitical risk premium left, the FX market…