ING Monthly September: Recession’s coat of many colours

ING Monthly: Recession's coat of many colours

Different shades of recession are spreading across the globe at record speed as soaring inflation, geopolitical tensions, and astronomical gas prices show…

Energy worries intensify

While weaker oil prices in recent months have provided some relief to consumers, the same cannot be said for European natural gas. Gas prices have seen…

Europe prepares for a hard winter

It is no secret that Europe is heading for a severe energy crisis. Energy prices have already skyrocketed but companies and households will only be…

Central banks: our main calls

Expect more big rate hikes in September from the major central banks, even if many of them are closing in on the end of their respective tightening cycles

US: The higher you climb the greater the fall

The Federal Reserve looks set to raise interest rates to 4% by year-end as officials signal a clear intent to deal with inflation. But with the global…

The eurozone economy is set to shrink in 2023

The expanding negative energy shock is likely to initiate a recession from the third quarter and we're likely to see a GDP contraction. Rising natural…

The UK's new prime minister faces immediate test as recession looms

With inflation set to hit 16-17% in January, a UK recession looks inevitable. The depth depends heavily on how much support the new prime minister offers…

Local governments to China's rescue as risks mount

There are more risks emerging from China's economy: Covid, real estate, regulations on the internet industry and the recent drought. These have…

Asian exports are softening

Non-China Asian exports are still growing, but the pace of increase has slowed and will slow still further as key export destinations struggle with…

CEE central banks are looking for a peak in the hiking cycle

In Central and Eastern Europe, the hiking cycle is coming to an end. in the Czech Republic, we're not expecting any further rate rises. Poland should…

Euro Focus: Germany is facing a perfect storm

At the start of the year, we singled out the German economy as one of the eurozone’s shining growth stars. The war in Ukraine has changed…

The dollar rally's still going strong

Long positioning is probably the biggest challenge to a further dollar rally from current levels. Yet the juxtaposition of a very hawkish Fed against…

Here's why rates will keep on rising

Market rates are set to rise as financial conditions are not tight enough in the US; the US 10yr yield could even go as far as topping 3.5% again. That…