Bundles

16 April 2026

ING Monthly: The world waits for a climbdown

Military conflicts are highly unpredictable, making high‑conviction forecasts almost impossible. That's why, rather than attempting to predict precise outcomes, we have provided detailed scenario analysis

In this bundle

The world waits for a climbdown

ING's new economic scenarios

Three scenarios for energy, central banks, rates and FX markets

How a prolonged disruption to Middle East energy flows could affect inflation, interest rates and currencies

, and 4 others

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

Energy market outlook hinges on the Middle East

The key factor for energy markets remains developments in the Middle East

Our latest views on the major central banks

Central banks and their tricky interest rate decisions

, and 2 others

United States

'Team Transitory' holds for now in the States

US inflation is rising but rate cuts seem more likely

ECB set to signal an ‘insurance’ rate hike

The ECB might hike interest rates to prevent a deterioration in inflation expectations

China

China’s growth faces pressure from reflation and a narrowing trade surplus

Reflation and currency appreciation are two trends to watch in China

United Kingdom

We (still) don't expect the Bank of England to hike rates

Bank of England interest rates are still widely seen as restrictive relative to peers

Energy shocks in Asia: diverging buffers, diverging growth

Australia

China

Energy shocks in Asia: diverging buffers, diverging growth

Asia's exposure to energy shocks varies widely across the region

CEE: Rates on hold as oil shock clouds outlook but avoids panic

Czech Republic

Hungary

CEE: Rates on hold as oil shock clouds outlook but avoids panic

CEE central banks remain cautious amid the Middle East crisis

, and 2 others

CIS-4: new global scenarios further reshape the outlook

Armenia

Azerbaijan

CIS-4: new global scenarios further reshape the outlook

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan amid continued tensions in the Middle East

Rates

Rates: Mapping the war to markets

Elevated interest hike pressure and inflation expectations maps to elevation in bond yields

Report

ING Monthly: The world waits for a climbdown

The six weeks of war in the Middle East have created a new stagflationary drag on the global economy