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In case you missed it: The land of lower rates

  • 5 July 2019

A precautionary Fed rate cut seems to be a done deal, despite today's encouraging jobs report, but we'll be looking for what the Fed Chair has to say when he testifies to Congress next week. In Europe, a change of guard to Lagarde, Italy dodges disciplinary action and alarm bells ring in Germany as the fear factor returns. It's all there in our monthly update!

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July Economic Update: The Art of the Deal
Report
5 July 2019

July Economic Update: The Art of the Deal

Politics is increasingly driving economics, with escalating US-China trade tensions and subsequent ceasefire being a case in point. We believe a trade…

US June jobs boom
5 July 2019

US June jobs boom

A really encouraging jobs report that suggests the broad economy is shrugging off the US-China trade uncertainty. While the Federal Reserve is gearing up…

Germany: Order book deflation continues
Quick take
5 July 2019

Germany: Order book deflation continues

The great order deflation continues and wraps up a week to forget for the German economy.

OPEC+ cuts extended
2 July 2019

OPEC+ cuts extended

This has certainly been one of the less exciting OPEC+ meetings, with President Putin spoiling the surprise on the side-lines of the G-20 summit. The…

Europe: Breakthrough with many surprises
Quick take
2 July 2019

Europe: Breakthrough with many surprises

The outgoing president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, just announced a breakthrough in the seemingly endless negotiations between European leaders…

Five reasons to stay long CAD
Canada
1 July 2019

Five reasons to stay long CAD

The Canadian dollar's rally may feel the kickback from re-escalating trade tensions, but the long-term outlook is still positive. We see high…

Italy: The EU Commission chose not to ask for an EDP against Italy, for the time being
Italy
3 July 2019

Italy: The EU Commission chose not to ask for an EDP against Italy, for the…

The 2019 budget re-assessment and the related decree were deemed enough by the EU Commission not to pull the trigger now. However, the ghost of an EDP…

Riksbank hints at 2019 hike, defying ECB dovishness
Quick take
Sweden
3 July 2019

Riksbank hints at 2019 hike, defying ECB dovishness

The ongoing weakness in the Swedish krona means the Riksbank appears to be taking a more relaxed stance towards prospective ECB easing than in years gone…

After the rally: Domestic factors to play a greater role in RUB pricing
Russia
3 July 2019

After the rally: Domestic factors to play a greater role in RUB pricing

We're upgrading our 3Q19 USD/RUB forecasts from 65-67 to 63-65, to account for the RUB2 rally which took place in mid-June on global risk-on, but in…

India’s FY2020 budget targets lower deficit, really
India
5 July 2019

India’s FY2020 budget targets lower deficit, really

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman may have scored some points for fiscal consolidation with a lower deficit target of 3.3% of GDP. Whether her maiden…

US Unemployment Trade Russia RUB Riksbank Payrolls OPEC Oil prices Oil July Economic Update Jobs Italy budget Italy Industry India

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