ING Monthly: Europe’s summer of disillusionment

Europe’s summer of disillusionment

The summer began with optimism around trade deals and progress in Ukraine – but quickly unravelled

Trade update: a risk of higher, not lower, tariffs

We no longer see the US government backtracking on tariffs in 2026 and beyond

OPEC+ continues with supply hikes

OPEC+ continues to ramp up supply, which should put downward pressure on oil prices

Our latest views on the major central banks

Central banks and their tricky interest rate decisions

France’s fiscal outlook deteriorates, but a full-blown crisis remains…

The fall of the government deepens uncertainty and public finances worsen

The eurozone remains mired in sluggish growth

Sluggish growth and a brief inflation dip in the eurozone seem unlikely to justify further ECB rate cuts

Job worries push the US Fed into action

Slower growth, weaker jobs and reduced inflation fears mean the Fed will cut policy rates in the coming months

The pivotal Lisa Cook case: a tipping point?

President Trump’s push for rate cuts from the Fed is one thing – but the prospect of firing Fed governors ventures into entirely different territory

Softer China data could restore urgency for stimulus rollout

Economic slowdown could shift policy focus back toward growth stabilisation

India’s GDP faces large tariff hit

The GDP impact from US tariffs seems manageable on paper, but larger indirect risks remain

Further Bank of England rate cuts hang in the balance

We still narrowly favour another rate cut in November

CEE: A land without rate cuts

Poland leads regional growth with 3.4% GDP and near-target inflation, while Hungary and Romania face inflation hurdles

CIS-4: fundamentals and sentiment remain largely positive

Monthly economic update on Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Pressure builds on the dollar

Dollar losses will probably accelerate from October onwards

A US rate cut vs a very French affair

There is excitement in the US amid looming interest rate cuts, but the eurozone has other concerns (many of them)