January Economic Update: Turbulent twenties

With political populism showing little sign of abating the risk is that the 2020s will be even more turbulent than the last decade

In this bundle

US: The twists and turns ahead

A strong start to 2019 gave way to fears of recession only for an easing in trade tensions and three Fed rate cuts to turn sentiment around again. 2020…

Eurozone: Signs of stability

The jury is still out on whether the eurozone slowdown is coming to an end or is merely on hold. The main culprit, the manufacturing sector, was still in…

UK: Big changes coming as EU trade talks loom

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision not to extend the 11-month post-Brexit transition period means negotiators have their work cut out to agree a…

China

China: Interest rate reform won’t stop yuan volatility

China's central bank is forcing lenders to adopt the Loan Prime Rate as the basis of quoting interest rates to borrowers. This will speed up…

Japan

Japan: Just spend it

In what looks like an admission that monetary policy is out of ammunition, Japan’s government is now turning back to fiscal stimulus to give the…

FX: Bounce back

Early year tension in the Middle East has failed to dampen bullish sentiment in FX markets. Assuming no severe escalation, pro-risk currencies should…

Rates

Rates: All the 2s in 2020

The rates profile for 2020 has a particular focus on the 2s when it comes to the global benchmark (the US). Or more correctly, the sub 2s. That describes…