ING Monthly: Hello, hello, hello, how low?

Hello, hello, hello, how low?

The global economy is stirring

Our first thoughts on the US election and the potential impact on Europe and…

What Trump v Biden will mean for America and the world

Tighter fundamentals and geopolitics are pushing commodities higher

Strong commodity prices come on the back of tighter fundamentals and growing geopolitical risks

Our view on the major central banks

Why we think the Fed is now likely to start cutting rates after the ECB

US resilience scuppers the case for early rate cuts

A US rate cut isn't expected until the third quarter

Hope springs eternal for the eurozone

The eurozone economy is coming out of the doldrums with slowly declining inflation opening the door for gradual monetary easing

Warning signs for Europe’s north

Europe's south has gained competitiveness while the north is losing out

The UK's summer rate cut hinges on April's inflation data

August rate hike is our base case despite recent optimistic comments from Governor Bailey

Reasons for cautious optimism about China

China's first quarter of 2024 may be stronger than previously expected

The Bank of Japan could be just months away from more policy normalisation

The Bank of Japan could hike rates in July

More divergence to come for the CEE region

The story in the region is entering another phase of divergence, both in the economy and inflation profile as well as in monetary and fiscal policy

FX: We're paring back our dollar pessimism

The US dollar may not fall quite as much as we first thought

Rates: Pressure for higher rates and wider spreads

Divergence between the ECB and the Fed echoes out the curve