ING Monthly: Curve surfing

With inflation more persistent than previously thought, major central banks are cautiously trying to get ahead of the curve. In our November update, we discuss the implications of this for the global economy and financial markets

In this bundle

United States

US: Bubbling inflation pushes Fed into action

Inflation pressures are broadening and intensifying through every sector of the US economy. At the same time, Covid is waning and activity is rebounding.…

Eurozone: Inflation worries increase

After a strong third quarter, eurozone growth is likely to decelerate on the back of supply chain troubles, high energy prices and a pick-up in Covid-19…

UK: Bank of England set to hike less quickly than markets expect

Rates

United Kingdom

UK: Bank of England set to hike less quickly than markets expect

The UK central bank looks poised to increase rates this December and we expect two further hikes next year. But growth headwinds and a comparatively less…

China

China: Calmer policy environment ahead

The number - and severity - of new government policies have eased after an abrupt stoppage of electricity in some areas due to a sudden shut down of…

CEE: Risk of sticky inflation forces central bankers to hike

Hungary

Poland

Romania

CEE: Risk of sticky inflation forces central bankers to hike

Disruptions in global value chains weighed on Central and Eastern Europe in the third quarter and the Delta variant blurs the outlook for the fourth. Yet…

, and 2 others

FX: Picking off the doves

Volatility is rising across FX markets as investors re-price central bank policy. Outperforming currencies have been those where die-hard dovish central…

Rates

Rates: Terminal levels for the US and eurozone

At the beginning of every rate hiking cycle, there are two key questions: when will it start and how high will rates go? We use the forwards to help…

Rates

ECB slowly joins the tapering bandwagon

With inflation being notoriously higher than the European Central Bank's own forecasts, the risk of being behind the curve has increased, triggering…

Transport & Logistics

When will supply chain frictions and input shortages abate?

Expect disruptions to last well into 2022, which will result in higher trending goods inflation and production hiccups dampening the recovery in production

and

United States

Global labour shortages: Just how bad can it get?

The lack of skilled workers is not only just another symptom of post-lockdown economics but also the result of more fundamental developments in the US,…

, and 2 others

Report

ING Monthly: Curve surfing

Until recently, large central banks followed the principle that being behind the curve was less costly than being ahead of it, even as inflation…