In case you missed it: Emerging markets in turmoil

Turkey flash crash: Chaotic contagion

A sharp drop in the Turkish lira could have implications for Europe's banks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. We expect the yen to…

A weaker Chinese Yuan: Contagion or confusion for global currencies?

While weakness in the Chinese yuan (CNY) is being touted as a source of global market risk, we find limited evidence of broad-based contagion from…

Four charts show the risk of a 'no deal' Brexit to the UK economy

Talk of a 'no deal' Brexit is ramping up as UK lawmakers remain divided on future European trade. We still think it's more likely that an…

US yield curve: Self-fulfilling prophecy?

Like everyone else, the Fed is watching the yield curve for signs of the next recession. But it seems unsure on what signal to take from the flattening curve

Russia: Hit by a double shot of sanctions

Russian assets have sold off heavily over the last 24 hours on the back of two US sanctions stories. The mood in the US Congress towards Russia certainly…

US yield curve and recession risk - watch the shape not the slope

With the 2s10s yield curve on a persistent flattening trend and dipping below 25bp last month, talk about a possible downturn in 2H19/2020 has heated up.…