In case you missed it: A war of words

US Treasury FX Report Preview: From trade war to currency war?

The US Treasury is set to release its FX report anytime now. While no major US trading partner meets the technical criteria to be labelled a currency…

Brexit blog: Just how close is a deal?

Headlines suggest the EU and UK are getting closer to a deal – but finding the right words for the political declaration on a future trading…

World trade: from boom to bust

Trade growth looks set to almost halve in 2018 to 2.6% and could drop to 1.3% in 2019, the lowest level since the trade collapse of 2009. The current…

Italy: Temporary fiscal push next year but what then?

The stated unwillingness to resume the structural adjustment path and very optimistic growth assumptions raise doubts about debt/GDP developments. A more…

A test for the Fed

The combination of rising borrowing costs, trade tensions and geopolitical threats are stressing financial markets, but with US growth looking strong and…

Germany: Warning - political landslide in Bavaria ahead

Sunday’s regional elections in Bavaria could become an important milestone, either imminently or in the future

Have emerging markets reached an inflection point?

This was one of the many questions we asked the attendees of the Emerging Markets Traders Association meetings in Hong Kong and Singapore. Although there…

Switzerland: The sun is shining but clouds loom

Low core inflation, high GDP growth, a super cautious central bank and arduous negotiations with the EU: the Swiss economy is doing well but uncertainty…