Romania: Industry confirming its slower start to the year

While February 2019 marked a mild reacceleration in Romanian industrial production, the overall trend of quasi-stagnation seems to be firming.

The positive side of today’s data was in the manufacturing sector - advancing 3.7% in February after two consecutive months of contraction (the January data was revised lower today). This is still below last year’s 5.6% average but nevertheless offsets the 1.3% contraction in mining and 3.4% in energy.

Industrial confidence recovered a bit in the first quarter of 2019 as businesses started to see inventory levels fall. Order-books have begun to recover. The external context remains challenging but some signs of a bottoming out are emerging. We retain our view that maintaining last year’s activity levels would be an encouraging achievement for Romanian industry.