Briefing Romania

In line with its regional peers, the Romanian leu appreciated yesterday and traded below 4.6500 on average turnover. While not being our main scenario, a more prolonged appreciation of the leu, along with the recent decline in oil prices, will likely send year-end headline inflation within the central bank’s target range of 2.5±1ppt.

Romanian government bonds continued to perform well, as long-term yields inched 3-4 basis points lower. The April 2026 auction was quite strong as well with a bid-to-cover of 2.05x. Yields were marginally above our expectations but still a bit below the secondary market, at a 4.67 average and 4.69% maximum. The Ministry of Finance allocated RON 494 million, slightly more than the initial RON400 million target as the demand has been pretty well clustered.

The National Bank didn’t roll over the repo auction yesterday, a decision anticipated by the market as well. Carry continues to hover just below the 2.50% key rate and the backdrop should remain supportive, at least until the next monthly budget payments.