December Economic Update: Avoiding Hard Choices

US: As good as it gets?

The US continues to perform strongly and wages are finally gathering pace. But protectionism and a weakening global outlook are significant risks for 2019…

Eurozone: Diminishing expectations

While the eurozone’s third-quarter growth was negatively affected by special factors, the rebound in the fourth quarter has so far been rather…

UK: Three Brexit questions for 2019

The immediate question for the UK in 2019 will be whether the government can gain approval for its Brexit deal. A defeat seems highly likely in December,…

China: Rough seas in 2019

The Chinese economy is set to slow down in 2019. The most likely scenario is an escalation of the US-China trade conflict, hurting exporters,…

Japan: Ready to bounce back

Economic growth in Japan contracted in the third quarter, hit by extensive damage from typhoon Jebi. But the doors are now open for a fourth-quarter…

FX: Patiently waiting on the peak

As 2019 progresses, expect to hear more about a Fed pause. US market interest rates typically turn lower before the top in the Fed cycle. And if…

Rates: Why EU angst is prompting talk of topping out

European politics, namely Brexit and the dispute between Italy and the EU, is keeping a lid on US 10-year rates. Though we may not have seen market rates…