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16 April 2019

A Republican Phoenix

If President Trump were to be replaced by another Republican nominee in the 2020 race, some of the current policy agenda would remain unchanged. However, some positions could depart significantly from those of the current administration. This is one of four scenarios we've considered, in conjunction with Oxford Analytica. The full report is here

Executive summary

If President Trump were to withdraw from the Presidential race, there remain several pathways along which a Republican Party candidate could win the Presidency in 2020.

This scenario is based on the premise that the Republican nominee, either Vice President Pence or another candidate, has time to build a traditional campaign following a normal nominating process.

In this report, we look at some of the key events that could lead to a non-Trump Republican winning the White House and the impact this could have on the economy and financial markets.

The major shifts from signature Trump policies under a successful Republican candidate are likely to be a less aggressive trade agenda and a less combative approach towards the Federal Reserve. Some tax cuts are possible and would focus on middle income households, while some infrastructure spending is possible, too.

The global economic environment is likely to be more benign than under Trump and would likely reduce the prospect of a boom-bust scenario, keeping the dollar and equity markets supported.

You can read the entire report here.

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