The new symbol of global optimism: Dining in the rain

Dining in the rain: The new symbol of freedom and optimism

In the near term, there are good reasons to be more optimistic, both for our own well-being and the economy

US: Racing back to life

The unprecedented stimulus has lifted US economic activity to within a touching distance of its pre-pandemic levels. President Biden isn't finished…

Eurozone: The recession is over

With another GDP contraction in the first quarter, the eurozone experienced a double-dip recession. However, as the vaccination campaign gains traction…

UK: The good times and economic recovery return as Covid-19 recedes

Falling Covid-19 prevalence and widespread vaccinations have boosted confidence in the durability of the recovery. Several data points are at…

China deleveraging spurred on by recovery

China's economic recovery seems to be sustainable, although the high GDP growth number was partly due to the low base effect. Given this background,…

Asia: What went wrong in India?

While there is a narrative that talks about double mutations and Indian variants, mass rallies, sporting events and religious festivals probably also…

Inflation pressures continue to build in central and eastern Europe

Inflation pressure is building across central and eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and Hungary. Both central banks are reluctant to tighten; Poland…

FX: The normalisation game

FX markets have entered May split down the middle. Outperforming are the commodity currencies enjoying the global recovery cycle and backed by central…

Rates: The bonkers relationship between inflation and yields

"Hey neighbour, here's $100. Give me back $91 in 10 years and you're good! Just pay me the inflation rate..." That's the negative…

Commodities are buoyant but supply concerns are still a worry

Metals prices are flirting with record levels, agricultural markets are trading at multi-year highs, and oil has staged an impressive recovery. The…

Global Central Banks Outlook

As many developed markets tentatively begin to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, attention is turning to taper and tightening in many economies.…

Biden's promise: Building back better and greener

Of the $4tn of extra spending proposed by President Biden, $2.2tn looks set to go on green and sustainability-related infrastructure investment. This…