Rates Outlook 2022: The liquidity overflow recedes

One of the key themes for 2022 centres on the reversal of the various avalanches of central bank liquidity that have dominated in the past number of years. But there are lots of moving parts next year and many of them are conflicting. In net terms, we see higher market rates as winning out, with the US 10yr hitting 2% and the eurozone 10yr climbing to 50bp

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Rates

Rates Outlook: The liquidity overflow recedes

The year ahead will feel quite different to the year just gone. The warm cloak of liquidity will feel that bit less secure as conditions begin to tighten…

Rates

Rates Outlook: If the 10yr Treasury can’t hit 2%, the Fed can forget about it too

The 10yr rising to 2% in 1Q and the 2yr at 1% by 2Q are key calls for 2022. This would pave the way for Fed rate hikes in the second half, with more…

Rates

Rates Outlook: The eurozone still has a long way to go

2022 is the year EUR rates wake up and smell the coffee. Monetary easing will stop, and tightening is around the corner. This should prove to be a rude…

Rates

Rates Outlook: The GBP curve is ahead of itself

For the GBP curve too, it will be difficult to escape the effects of monetary policy. The start of Bank of England tightening will provide some certainty,…

Rates

Rates Outlook: The bond supply dynamic and sovereign spreads

Eurozone net issuance will decline in 2022, but is outweighed by the ECB reducing its footprint. There will be a clear fall in US net issuance in 2022…

and

Rates

Rates Outlook: Swap spreads to see widening pressure

While there is upward pressure on market rates in 2022, it's not coming from higher net supply. In fact, lower net supply can help to richen…

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Rates Outlook 2022: The liquidity overflow recedes

One of the key themes for 2022 and into 2023 centres on the reversal of the various avalanches of central bank liquidity that have dominated in the past…

and