Poland’s gradual recovery in 4Q is set to accelerate this year

The economy is preparing for a rebound. After a mostly lacklustre fourth quarter, December brings hope of a recovery. Manufacturing is improving and construction is stronger though retail trade remains weak. We estimate that the Polish economy grew 1.4-1.5% year-on-year in 4Q vs 0.5% in 3Q, and see GDP growth of 0.3-0.4% in 2023 and around 3% in 2024

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Poland

Mixed December data from Poland’s industry

Poland’s industrial output was still down on a year-on-year basis in December, but it increased in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms

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Polish construction sees a solid year-end rebound

Retail, Construction & Manufacturing

Poland

Polish construction sees a solid year-end rebound

Subsidised government credit and EU co-financed investments helped boost the rebound seen in Polish construction late last year

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Poland

Poland’s wage growth temporarily returns to single digits

Corporate sector employment surprised on the upside in December, though the number of jobs declined by 0.1% year-on-year. A slowdown of wage growth below 10%…

Poland

Poland’s retail sales disappoint at year-end

Despite the weaker data for late 2023, we believe consumption will rebound this year as real disposable income rises faster than before the pandemic

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