ING’s Economic Outlook 2023: ‘May he live in interesting times’

'May he live in interesting times'

Rarely have predictions for an upcoming year been so difficult and wide-ranging. But we are sure of some things, and we are doing our best to help you…

The world right now

The global economy at a glance

Our 3 calls for the global economy and energy prices

An overview of our current base case alongside potential upside and downside scenarios of what could be next for the global economy

Our call on global inflation

Inflation – it's complicated. And it has dominated headlines for the past two years. Here's what we think is going to happen next

Our 3 calls for commodities

This year has been extraordinary for commodity markets. Supply risks led to increased volatility and elevated prices. However, demand concerns have taken…

Our 3 calls for central banks

Global central banks are facing unprecedented challenges. Here's our focus on the main ones

Our 3 calls for trade and supply chains

Global trade will continue to slow in 2023 amid economic headwinds. At the same time, trade patterns are changing and supply frictions persist in a…

Our 3 calls for sectors

Business decisions will be shaped by the response to the energy crisis, weakening consumer demand and commitments to reduce carbon emissions in 2023

Our 3 calls for global politics

Geopolitics continue to be an important driver for financial markets and the global economy. Predicting future geopolitical moves is always a bit of a…

Our 3 calls for the US

We should see a swifter fall in US inflation than anywhere else given the composition of the country's inflation basket. Recession will accelerate…

Our 3 calls for the eurozone

After a mild winter recession, the eurozone is likely to see a very subdued recovery, while inflation is bound to end in 2023 above 3%. Meanwhile, the…

Our 3 calls for the eurozone's big three

All of the eurozone big three – Germany, France and Italy – will experience a recession next year, but the strength of each economic downturn…

Our 3 calls for the UK

A recession looks virtually inevitable in the UK but the jobs market could prove more resilient than in past downturns. Inflation should begin to fall…

Our 3 calls for the Netherlands

The Netherlands has probably seen inflation peak; growth next year will be driven by large increases in government spending

Our 3 calls for eurozone real estate

Eurozone real estate is set for a correction on higher rates

Our 3 calls for Central and Eastern Europe

After an unprecedented wave of monetary tightening in Central and Eastern Europe, we expect the region to start normalising monetary conditions. Although…

Our 3 calls for China

The outlook for China's economy next year will depend on when Covid measures are eased and international borders are reopened. Recession in the US and…

Our 3 calls for Asia

Inflation in Asia will peak at the end of 2022, and while we're unlikely to see any significant recovery in the region's economies next year,…

Our 3 calls for FX

After a clean dollar bull trend since the summer of 2021, the story for FX markets in 2023 becomes a little murkier. Our baseline view is that central…

Our 3 calls for rates

2023 is shaping up to be a year of turning points, as market rates peak out and drop, and curves re-steepen as future cuts are contemplated, especially in…