October Economic Monthly: Winter is coming

Carsten on Covid: Winter is coming

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the outlook for the global economy once again looks bleak as Covid-19 infection rates continue to rise.…

US: Decision time

The US economy has responded well to the reopening with output likely expanding at a 30%+ annualised rate in the third quarter, but challenges remain and…

Eurozone: Second wave balancing act

With coronavirus measures being tightened again, the eurozone recovery is likely to lose steam. At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly low,…

UK: Economic challenges mount as Covid-19 and Brexit collide

A renewed spike in Covid-19 cases and the growing likelihood of new restrictions suggests the economy will have a difficult winter. A 'no deal'…

CEE: No hiding from the slower growth pace

Restrictions are back as Covid cases rise. But as measures will be less draconian than in 1H20, we look for a slower pace of recovery in the…

China's "internal circulation" is working

With internal tourism at its heart, President Xi's promotion of "internal circulation" is quickly delivering a recovery in Chinese GDP growth

Asia: 50 shades of swoosh

The recovery continues in Asia, but it certainly cannot be described as a "V"-shaped recovery, more of a Nike swoosh, with the depth of the drop…

Rates: Born in the USA

While the Covid drama surrounding the White House presented a distracting background, in the foreground the rates market is sniffing an eventual stimulus…

FX markets: Betting on Biden

With less than a month to go until the US presidential election, it is fair to say that FX markets are starting to behold a vision of a Joe Biden…

Central banks: What's left in the toolbox?

The resurgence of Covid-19 across Europe and elsewhere is sparking fears of a reversal in the global recovery over the winter. While fiscal policy will…

A second eurozone wave should be a wake-up call for policymakers

The rise of new Covid-19 cases has led to concerns about an early end to the rebound of the eurozone economy. While we don’t see much of an impact…