March Economic Update: In like a lion, out like a lamb?

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March Economic Update: In like a lion, out like a lamb?

A deal between the US and China appears close, which could see markets rethink their ultra-cautious expectations on US central bank policy. Concerns about…

United States

US: A test of ‘patience’

'Cross-currents' have led the Federal Reserve to adopt a more 'patient', data dependent approach to monetary policy for 2019. While the…

Trade: A turn for the better

A trade deal between the US and China is looking closer than ever, but the next few weeks will be far from easy for the negotiators on either side. But…

Eurozone: A sense of stabilisation

Sentiment indicators, which had been falling since the start of 2018 are finally stabilising, but with growth expectations scaled back and inflation still…

United Kingdom

UK: Will May’s deal pass after all?

The UK Prime Minister faces an uphill struggle to get her deal approved by Parliament. That means an extension to the Article 50 negotiating period now…

China

China: State sees headwinds

China’s government has provided a set of targets for 2019, and it appears the government is relying a lot more on fiscal stimulus rather than…

FX: Dollar against the low yielders

We continue to look for the US dollar to outperform the low-yielding G10 currencies in the coming months. We expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a hike,…

Japan

Japan: Old style

Fourth-quarter growth was a bit of a 'dead-cat' bounce. Consumption is struggling to grow, despite better wage growth and inflation isn't…

Rates

Rates: Ultra-low Bund yield rationalised by angst

The 10-year German yield at a mere c.20 basis points bears no reflection whatsoever on the Germany economy. So how can we make sense of this? Plain and…