Rates

United States

Bundles

4 November 2022

ING’s November Monthly: The long wait for the pivot

As signs of recession become more visible in December, we expect policymakers to slow down their tightening efforts and eventually end them in the first quarter of next year. But for a real pivot, headline and core inflation will need to come down significantly. This is a scenario we do not foresee before next summer

In this bundle

The long wait for the pivot

There are tentative signs that central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic are considering a pivot to more modest interest rate hikes. But this could be…

Energy

Three scenarios for the global economy and energy prices

The bullish and bearish case for energy prices and what those scenarios would mean for the major economies

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Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

Relief for energy markets won’t last long

Natural gas prices came under significant pressure in October due to milder weather and growing European storage. Oil prices have been relatively stable…

Central banks: Our main calls

We're now expecting the Fed Funds Rate to hit 5% early next year, albeit in more modest steps. We also think there are limits to how much further both…

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United States

The US is hiking into a recession

The Federal Reserve is focused on defeating inflation, whatever the economic cost. Nonetheless, after four consecutive 75bp rate hikes the pace is set to…

The eurozone’s last hurrah before recession bites

The eurozone economy expanded in the third quarter, but most recent data suggests that the recession has already started. Double-digit inflation is…

United Kingdom

UK recession inevitable as government winds back economic support

Prospects of fiscal tightening, limited energy support, and sky-high mortgage rates look set to reduce the size of the UK economy by roughly 2% over…

China

China hopes expanded high-tech FDI list will boost ailing economy

The Chinese government has quickly followed up the Party Congress' key policy objectives by allowing foreign direct investment on an expanded…

Lack of Chinese tourists is hindering Asia’s economic recovery

As Asia's current account surpluses get hit by high energy prices, resurgent tourism could be one tonic to soften the blow – but there's one…

CEE: struggling to stave off recession

We see signs of a recession in the region in the hard data, but inflation has yet to peak. Central banks are thus resisting pressure to raise rates…

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Logistics & Automotive

Global trade slows and supply chains remain unbalanced

Global trade is slowing over faltering consumer demand amid the energy and inflation crisis. Delays have eased and container rates have tumbled, but…

and

FX markets: The dollar, asset markets and the global cycle

FX markets have entered a consolidative phase as they attempt to second-guess the next move from the Federal Reserve. That has allowed the dollar to…

Rates

Rates: If the system’s okay, rates should edge up

The pivot camp thinks market rates have peaked. They may indeed have, but that doesn't mean we can't get back up to that peak. We think it's…

Report

ING’s November Monthly: The long wait for the pivot

Major central banks are still facing high and, in some cases, increasing inflation, dashing hopes for an imminent end to rate hikes. But as signs of…