ING Global Outlook 2024: No magic spell for a brighter world

No magic spell for a brighter world

Carsten's take on what 2024 holds for the global economy

At a glance: The world right now

A snapshot of the latest developments in the global economy

Three scenarios for the major economies

Our alternative scenarios for the global economy and energy prices in 2024

Our view on central banks in 2024

Why the major central banks are likely to start cutting from the second quarter of next year

Three calls for the US

Growth should be weaker than the market expects while inflation could hit 2% sooner and stay there, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively

Three calls for the eurozone

Economic stagnation, uneven fiscal policy, and ECB rate cuts could be defining features of 2024

Three calls for the UK

UK inflation should be nudging 2% by May and that should help unlock rate cuts next summer

Three calls for China

Tackling historical excesses will take time and cost some near-term growth

Three calls for the eurozone's big three

Our calls for the eurozone's big three in 2024

Three calls for Central and Eastern Europe

Central banks in the region should continue the cutting cycle but each in its own way. Inflation is back to single digits but a return to the central…

Three calls for Other Asia

Plenty of headwinds and event risks, but some scope for easier monetary policy to start the next leg up in the business cycle

Three calls for trade and supply chains

Trade picks up after rough weather, but things won’t be the same

Three calls for commodity markets

Oil prices should trade higher, gold could hit record levels and we see limited upside in European gas prices in 2024

Three calls for FX markets

We think 2024 will see a weaker dollar, higher commodity currencies and European FX underperformance

Three calls for rates in 2024

Curve steepening from the front end coincides with lower long-end rates through 2024. The US deficit and issues like Italy feature later in 2024