ING Monthly: We’re only human

If anything can go wrong, it will... that's the definition of Murphy's Law. We always use our wealth of experience to come up with what we think is going to happen in the global economy but to err is human. So, what might we be getting wrong?

In this bundle

Carsten Brzeski: We’re only human

We like to be right, but things can go wrong

United States

James Knightley: Risks skewed towards higher-for-longer US interest rates

Economic threats may mean the Fed could ease policy even more aggressively

Peter Vanden Houte: Eurozone growth is already dwindling

Eurozone growth is dwindling, but the ECB is still likely to hike interest rates in both June and July

United Kingdom

James Smith: Why we disagree with markets on the Bank of England

Investors think Bank Rate could rise another 100bp, but we're less convinced. Here's why

Rob Carnell: Asia rebound could be weaker and later

Our forecast of recovery in the Asia region in the second half of the year may have been too optimistic

Energy

Warren Patterson: China’s economic recovery could push oil demand to record levels this year

We see a tighter oil market over the latter part of the year. However, there are some clear risks to this view

Chris Turner: Sticky US inflation is the biggest threat to our FX views

Sticky US inflation is probably the biggest risk to our bearish dollar view

Rates

Padhraic Garvey: Lower rates by the end of 2023, but there are risks

We think market rates will fall, curves will steepen and US rates will converge on eurozone ones

Report

ING’s June Monthly: We’re only human

All the latest from our team on the key risks that could sway our current base case scenarios moving forward