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ING Monthly: The world economy at half-time

ING Monthly: The world economy at half-time

  • 9 July

As we are still licking the wounds of an unexpected first half of the year, it would be presumptuous to call for an entirely benign macro environment in the second half

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9 July

Carsten: The global economy at half time

Our three things to watch in the second half of 2026

How a Middle East re-escalation could reshape the outlook for interest rates and markets
9 July

How a Middle East re-escalation could reshape the outlook for interest rates…

Our scenarios for oil, central banks and financial markets if Strait of Hormuz flows become fully disrupted

Oil off its highs but risks return
Commodities, Food & Agri Energy
9 July

Oil off its highs but risks return

The recent flare-up in hostilities between the US and Iran poses risks

Our latest views on the major central banks
United Kingdom
9 July

Our latest views on the major central banks

What could be next for the Fed, ECB and Bank of England over the coming months

Slowing US inflation to keep the Fed on hold
United States
9 July

Slowing US inflation to keep the Fed on hold

Inflation may have peaked and the Fed can afford to be patient

A fragile reprieve for the eurozone
9 July

A fragile reprieve for the eurozone

The Middle East ceasefire provided a breather for eurozone growth but risks are growing

3 key questions for China's second half of 2026
China
9 July

3 key questions for China's second half of 2026

China’s exports continue to find global demand while domestic demand lags amid global uncertainty

Lower oil prices a boon for Britain, Burnham and the Bank of England
United Kingdom
9 July

Lower oil prices a boon for Britain, Burnham and the Bank of England

A more benign UK inflation outlook removes some pressure from the public finances and Bank of England

Oil prices still offer relief for Asia, but no policy pivot
9 July

Oil prices still offer relief for Asia, but no policy pivot

Inflation and external pressures across Asia have eased

CEE: Inflation relief reshapes the rates outlook
Czech Republic Hungary
9 July

CEE: Inflation relief reshapes the rates outlook

Softer inflation and a more dovish rates story expected

CIS-4 resilience to face tests in the second half of 2026
Armenia Azerbaijan
9 July

CIS-4 resilience to face tests in the second half of 2026

Our latest take on Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan as tensions in the Middle East subside

FX: Dollar dances in the dark
FX
9 July

FX: Dollar dances in the dark

Expectations of Fed rate hikes have driven dollar gains over the last few months. Our call is that these trends reverse over the next quarter

Rates: Curve pivots and steady spreads
Rates
9 July

Rates: Curve pivots and steady spreads

We expect elevated real rates, steeper curves and stability in Treasuries, Bunds and swaps

ING Monthly: The world economy at half-time
Report
9 July

ING Monthly: The world economy at half-time

After a challenging first half of the year, the global economy is regrouping ahead of a crucial second-half push

US Scenarios Rates Persian Gulf Natural gas Monthly Update Monthly Economic Update Monetary policy Monetary Policy LNG Iran conflict Interest rates Inflation Inflation Hungary Geopolitics

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This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
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