Bundles

9 October 2025

ING Monthly: Europe prays that France gets a grip

French politics has taken centre stage over the past month. Expect political instability and uncertainty to leave their mark on the global economy

In this bundle

Europe prays that France gets a grip

French political chaos is an economic warning to Europe

US tariffs persist beyond the headlines

Even if it's not headline news, global trade is still shifting

Why energy prices are finally set to fall next year

Further OPEC+ supply sees oil surplus grow

United States

'Go your own way', sing Lagarde and Powell

Transatlantic monetary policy divergence is not new and will continue

and

Our view on the major central banks

ING's expectations for the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England and People's Bank of China

, and 2 others

United States

Tame tariff impact gives the US Fed room to cut

The Fed has more room to respond to the jobs market slowdown

Growth gears grinding in the eurozone

Eurozone growth continues to remain sluggish

Germany: Searching for a higher gear

Germany is still searching for a higher gear to finally get the economy growing again

China

China's summer slowdown may spark economic déjà vu

Weak Chinese confidence is undermining investment and consumption

India

Asia’s export pulse weakens, policy support persists

Asia's export growth is under strain but demand and investment provide support

United Kingdom

Bank of England set to cut rates further than markets expect

Lower UK inflation and higher taxes should unlock further rate cuts in 2026

CEE: Similar hawkish messages for quite different reasons

Czech Republic

Hungary

CEE: Similar hawkish messages for quite different reasons

Our outlook for Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary

, and 2 others

Armenia

Azerbaijan

CIS-4 remains a strong regional play

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in focus

Why we're raising our USD/JPY forecasts

We now think USD/JPY will end 2025 closer to 148

Rates

Rates: Yields want to test lower first – let them overshoot

There is a mood for a downside test in yields

Report

Europe prays that France gets a grip

France needs to get its act together for the sake of future European economic stability