ING’s October Monthly: bracing for a tough winter

ING Monthly: bracing for a tough winter

As the global economy slides into a winter recession, Europe is in the eye of the storm. High energy costs caused by the war in Ukraine and rising…

Three scenarios for the global economy and energy prices as winter beckons

It's no secret that the global economic outlook hinges on energy prices this winter, but every country faces a unique cocktail of challenges ranging…

Central banks: what next from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England?

The Federal Reserve is closing in on the end of its tightening cycle as the European Central bank gets started. The Bank of England could hike by 100bp in…

Macro concerns vs commodity supply constraints

Commodity markets have come under pressure due to a strengthening US dollar and a raft of central banks hiking interest rates recently. This has clouded…

US: a cold wind is blowing

This has been a disappointing year for the US economy with two consecutive quarters of falling output. It will be worse in 2023. Consumer spending and…

There's no denying it anymore: the eurozone is in recession

After a deceleration in economic growth over the summer months, eurozone indicators strongly deteriorated in September, suggesting the start of a…

UK recession likely amid mounting market turmoil

The UK government has U-turned on part of its controversial tax plan but markets are looking for further measures to reduce borrowing requirements over…

China: recovery derailed by real estate crisis

The economy has recovered slightly due to more flexible Covid measures. But the real estate crisis will put pressure on economic growth if home sales do…

Asia: this is not 1997

Despite some superficial similarities, there are really very few parallels between today's markets and the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98

An uphill start for the next Italian government

A new government will soon take over from Mario Draghi. An increasingly difficult economic environment might force it to adopt an approach inspired by…

CEE: central banks face tough policy decisions amid persistent inflation

The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are slowing, but the picture in most cases is not that bad. However, global conditions suggest it will be a…

FX: too soon for Plaza 2.0

Volatility has picked up sharply in FX markets as the strong dollar pressure tests financial market vulnerabilities around the world. Some are saying that…

Rates: here's why rates need to rise again before falling

Market rates are primed for a large fall. But first, we need to see hints of a peak in official rates, and that still depends on a very uncertain path for…