ING Monthly: Hiking in the dark

There’s a growing sense of urgency among global central banks. Inflation remains too high and interest rates are too low to contain it. But just how far will policymakers go and can they engineer a soft landing? In our May update, we present our latest forecasts for monetary policy and the implications for the economy and markets around the world

In this bundle

Watch: Normalising policy in an abnormal world

ING's Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski, recaps some of the key factors currently affecting the global economy, the challenges we are yet to…

Central banks turn more hawkish as inflation concerns build

We now expect the first ECB rate hike in July, alongside successive 50 basis-point moves from the Fed, as policymakers become more nervous about inflation

, and

US: How far can the Fed go?

With inflation above 8% and the unemployment rate below 4% the Federal Reserve is finally in policy tightening mode, just when the growth story is showing…

Eurozone: ECB hawks are coming to the fore

The eurozone still managed to grow in the first quarter of 2022, but a significant slowdown looks likely on the back of the war in Ukraine. While…

United Kingdom

UK: Deteriorating growth backdrop points to steadier rate hikes

UK consumer confidence has plunged close to record lows, and a negative second-quarter growth figure looks likely. We expect another Bank of England rate…

China

China’s longer-than-expected lockdown needs government intervention

Lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai, have gone on much longer than expected. This is hurting the economy and disrupting supply chains. The…

Asia: accommodation to decline as inflation rises

Asia: accommodation to decline as inflation rises

Asian central bank policy remains accommodative, but inflation is beginning to rise, and that accommodation is on borrowed time

Central and Eastern Europe: One step further, but still not there

The general story in the region remains unchanged – more inflation means more interest rate hikes even though GDP growth is at risk. We expect the…

, and 3 others

France

France: Against Macron, the left gathers for the legislative elections

In France, the left-wing parties are trying to come together to present themselves as a bloc in the legislative elections. Their goal is to obtain a…

FX Markets: EUR/USD parity comes into focus

April proved a perfect bullish storm for the dollar. Expectations of Fed tightening remained solid even as growth expectations were cut in Europe and…

Rates

Rates: Real rates begin to diverge

Inflation expectations have converged between the US and the eurozone. So, the 10yr rate differential is driven by real rates. As the US 10yr real rate…

Report

ING Monthly: Hiking in the dark

There’s a growing sense of urgency among global central banks. Inflation remains too high and interest rates are too low to contain it. But just how…

, and 11 others