Bundles

12 June 2025

ING Monthly: A blockbuster plot worth following

The global economy in 2025 resembles a Tom Cruise blockbuster: full of drama and action but hard to follow

In this bundle

A blockbuster plot worth following

Carsten Brzeski on the global economy's high-octane stunts

Trade

US tariffs here to stay, trade deals 'largely symbolic'

US trade policy is holding firm despite legal challenges.

Commodities, Food & Agri

Energy

OPEC+ move to defend market share

The shift in OPEC+ policy suggests that oil prices will come under pressure later this year

Our latest views on the major central banks

Central banks and their tricky interest rate decisions

, and 2 others

United States

Trade swings mask cooling US demand growth

Trade volatility looks set to mask underlying domestic US demand trends

Ireland

Irish 'boom' disguises eurozone weakness

Inflated Irish GDP figures mask eurozone weakness. Despite eurozone inflation falling below 2%, the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle

United Kingdom

The UK’s deteriorating jobs market should ring alarm bells at the Bank of England

UK job losses are picking up pace and that casts doubt over the Bank of England's gradual approach

China

China’s growth remains steady despite the tariff dance

We're cautiously optimistic about China but things can change quickly

Asian growth set to slow

We should see softer growth across Asia, except for South Korea and Japan

CEE: Focus returns to the local story

Hungary and Romania continue to surprise to the downside, while things are looking up in the Czech Republic

CIS-4 face higher CPI risks despite stronger exchange rates

Our take on the latest developments across Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

FX: risk premium to stay in the dollar

Expect the risk premium to stay in the dollar this year

Rates

Rates: downside limits for yields, versus bigger room to the upside

We see more room for yields to rise than fall, with fiscal deficit pressure moving things along

Report

ING Monthly: A blockbuster plot worth following

The global economy in 2025 resembles a Tom Cruise blockbuster: full of drama and action but hard to follow