In case you missed it: Dovishness all over again

US jobs miss forecasts cementing market expectations of a slowdown, and if the Fed cuts rates, the ECB will probably follow suits as it is a smidge away itself. Elsewhere, we've revised our yuan forecast lower amidst President Trump's trade crusade as the damage from the trade war is set to make 2019 the worst year for trade since the financial crisis

In this bundle

Disappointing US jobs report: A huge miss

While we were expecting jobs growth to slow down this time, few could have predicted such weak payroll numbers. The poor reading only cements market…

United States

Fed easing and the dollar: Necessary, but not sufficient

There is a conviction that the Fed is going to have to cut rates to insulate the economy from trade wars. US rates are collapsing, but the dollar is…

and

ECB: Dovish vehemence from Vilnius

Dovishness all over. With today’s meeting, the European Central Bank is, in our view, only a small economic slip away from a rate cut

EUR & ECB: Ready to offset the possible dovish Fed

Despite the lack of explicit action, the European Central Bank (ECB) got as close as it gets to an interest rate cut. This means that if the Fed starts…

China

China: Revising yuan lower but 7.0 should hold

We are revising our USD/CNY and USD/CNH forecasts to reflect expectations for a weaker yuan. This is a result of the rising tensions between China and the…

Germany

Germany: Horrible start to the second quarter

Disappointing April data from industrial production and trade suggest that the latest ECB’s dovishness is justified

Italy

Italy: Debt-driven excessive deficit procedure recommendation: take two

The move from the EU Commission, which did not come as a big surprise, will now force a clarification between the Italian government stakeholders on the…

Trade

World trade heading for the worst year since 2009

The strong setback to world trade growth at the end of 2018 and the damage from the trade war will make 2019 the worst year for trade since the financial…

India

We were wrong on RBI policy, but for the right reasons

The shift in Indian central bank policy stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘accommodative’ doesn’t’ mean there will be more rate…