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Global Macro Outlook 2021: The darkness before the dawn

17 November 2020

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What a year! As this wild and turbulent year draws to a close, we look back on how Covid-19 has sent the global economy into the worst slump in a century…

United States

The US in 2021: The Biden bounce

The US economy faces major near-term challenges, but longer-term we think the market is too cautious on its prospects. A vaccine, a major fiscal stimulus,…

Eurozone in 2021: Digital, fiscal and monetary changes

A double-dip in the eurozone has become almost inevitable. But despite all the government support to soften the blow to the economy, the structural face…

China

China in 2021: Quantifying quality growth

In its fourteenth five year plan, China has outlined a vision for achieving high-quality growth. Here's what it means in practice

Asia in 2021: Ascendant

Fiscal and monetary policymakers have ripped up the rule book in Asia this year to battle the pandemic, but the strength of the recovery in 2021 will…

United Kingdom

UK in 2021: Another year of tough decisions

The end of the post-Brexit transition period poses a fresh challenge for the economic recovery, although we're unlikely to see a Covid-style GDP…

Rates

Rates in 2021: Far from risk free

This is it! The final year for Libor, at least for the US, the UK and some others. Euribor continues, but the rest need to get ready for…

Trade

International trade in 2021: Plenty of challenges, but recovery in sight

World trade will not be far from news headlines in 2021, and despite the new leadership both in the US and soon at the World Trade Organisation, this is…

United Kingdom

What Brexit and Biden will mean for the world in 2021

Two big themes in 2020 were Brexit and Joe Biden's election win. We map out their broader implications for economic and foreign policy in 2021

Key political events in 2021

In the next twelve months, from Peru to India, the Netherlands to Australia, many elections and political events have the potential to shape the economic…

Global central banks in 2021

Global central banks have had a busy 2020, but their job is far from over. What tools do policymakers have left to deploy and what should we expect from…

How to deal with soaring debt levels

Fiscal deficits have surged to unprecedented levels and government debt in the eurozone is expected to reach the highest level since 2014. While in the…

Central and Eastern Europe in 2021: Bracing for the post winter rebound

Once winter has passed, the CEE region should brace itself for a meaningful economic rebound from 2Q21 onwards but the prospects of a reflation narrative…

Brazil

Brazil in 2021: The focus is on fiscal policy

Brazil’s forceful policy reaction to the pandemic was crucial to mitigate its economic impact but it requires some correction in 2021. As it stands,…

Philippines

Philippines in 2021: The economy continues to lose steam

Philippine GDP growth contracted 10% in the first three quarters of the year and there's little hope of a big turnaround in 2021

USA UK Trade War Rates Philippines Global Macro Outlook 2021 Fiscal policy Eurozone China Central Bank CEE Brexit Brazil Asia

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This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
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