Global Economic Update: Peak Trump?

In our monthly economic outlook, we examine the turmoil in emerging markets exacerbated by a strong dollar, rising US borrowing costs and fears of a trade war. We also delve into Europe's troubles, with Italian politics in focus and mounting Brexit risks. Will US markets and the dollar continue to strengthen against this backdrop or are we past the peak?

In this bundle

FX: Peak Trump?

The strong dollar and aggressive protectionism continues to ask major questions of vulnerable Emerging Markets. This narrative looks set to extend into…

US: Onwards and upwards

Given fiscal tailwinds, the strong jobs market and surging corporate profits, we look for the economy to continue growing robustly through the rest of the…

Eurozone: Half full or half empty?

While the eurozone economy hasn’t suffered too much from the trade skirmishes, uncertainty around both the Italian budget and the Brexit deal is…

Rates

Rates: Why they are so low

Core rates are low for many reasons, ultimately a reflection of excess demand over supply - which has been affected by quantitative easing. But there is…

Japan

Japan: Mostly good

Japan’s economy is in decent shape, judging by GDP and the labour market performance, and its persistently low inflation is doing no harm at all.…

China

China: Ready to strike back

China is gearing up to respond to an expected escalation in US trade agression. Counter-measures against US exports and US business interests look likely,…