February Economic Update: Stick or twist?
A substantial softening in the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric on monetary policy, coupled with encouraging signals from the US-China trade talks have…
February could be the turning point in the ongoing trade war if the US and China cut a deal and if the US administration decides against hiking tariffs on…
Trade policy remains critical to the outlook. If the US strike deals with the EU and China the Fed will hike interest rates again. But if it fails, the…
A reversal of some one-offs could bring slightly higher growth to the Eurozone in the second quarter, but the risks of US tariffs on European cars, as…
The Brexit impasse in the UK shows no signs of breaking. The EU is refusing to budge on the Irish backstop, while Prime Minister May is still reluctant to…
The Chinese economy is weakening on several fronts and not just because of the US-China trade war. In response, the government is looking for ways to…
Things in Japan aren't looking as promising as we anticipated, with net trade the biggest scope for disappointment. This isn't too surprising in…
The Fed pause and the US: China trade truce has improved the external environment and allowed under-valued currencies to recover. As long as the trade…
We have identified a change in rates market psychology; it shows that rates are peering down, but we’d prefer to bet against this as a tactical…
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