Key events in EMEA and Latam next week

We expect a moderate industrial production reading at 5.6% year-on-year and solid retail sales at 7.4% year-on-year for May.

From the GDP perspective, the domestic picture looks solid, with major risks related to the export sector's performance. Labour market data should present another employment increase with wage growth close to 7% year-on-year.

In Hungary, the focus will be on the National Bank of Hungary's (NBH) rate setting meeting, especially in the wake of recent HUF weakness. If the NBH takes inflation targeting seriously, it needs to say at least something about the turmoil in the Hungarian FX market. According to the NBH, “statements regarding to both of these (decision on monetary conditions and updated inflation forecasts) will answer a lot of the questions being raised”.

On Tuesday, the central bank is revealing the latest GDP and inflation outlook with the whole inflation report being released on Thursday. We see the NBH revising its 2018–2019 inflation outlook up slightly.