Article29 June 2018Reading time one minute

EUR/USD: What’s next for euro-dollar?

Here are four potential EUR/USD paths as we try to cut through the global markets' gloom. Click here to download our fuller PDF report

Our scenario analysis: Click on the image to enlarge

ING estimates
ING estimates

EUR/USD has confounded consensus expectations this year, hit by both intermittent episodes of USD strength and EUR weakness. Of the many factors that will drive EUR/USD over the next 12-18 months, four stand out:

  1. Trade wars
  2. European politics
  3. The relative ECB/Fed policy outlook
  4. The relative EZ-US growth (and equity) prospects.

This is taken from our more comprehensive report, which you can download here

EUR/USD decline since mid-April has been in large part driven by a rising risk premium