Our scenario analysis: Click on the image to enlarge
EUR/USD has confounded consensus expectations this year, hit by both intermittent episodes of USD strength and EUR weakness. Of the many factors that will drive EUR/USD over the next 12-18 months, four stand out:
- Trade wars
- European politics
- The relative ECB/Fed policy outlook
- The relative EZ-US growth (and equity) prospects.
This is taken from our more comprehensive report, which you can download here