Poland: Retail sales recover
Retail sales rebounded in October mainly due to a better performance of automotive dealers. Sentiment surveys suggest consumption will moderate in coming quarters
Headline retail sales accelerated to 7.8% year-on-year in constant prices after a soft September (3.6%). Car sales rebounded from -4.3% to 9.7% YoY. The September slump was related to the introduction of a new emission test procedure (WLTP) and should not be repeated in coming months.
Demand for durable goods remained at a solid level but moderated compared to strong 2Q figures. For example, sales of consumer electronics and households appliances increased from 2.8% to 7.5%YoY in October, however this category saw double-digit growth in previous quarters. A recent household sentiment survey provided by the statistics office GUS confirmed this moderation – optimism related to planned purchases and savings diminished while anxiety over job losses increased slightly.
As a result, we expect private consumption to decelerate from 4.9% YoY in 2Q to 4.3% in 4Q and 3.6% in 2019. Still, household expenditures should provide the greatest contribution to GDP growth next year.
This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
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