Hungary: Real wage growth slows
Wage growth is still strong in Hungary but real wages are rising at a slower pace due to increases in inflation
13.1% |
Average gross wages (YoY)Consensus 13.3% / Previous 13.9% |
Worse than expected |
Hungarian average gross and net wages rose by 13.1% on a yearly basis in December, showing a slowdown compared to the previous month. As in November, wage growth data was affected by one-off bonuses and premiums, notably seen in the private rather than the public sector this time around.
Wage growth in the public sector came in at 11.5% YoY in the last month of 2019, significantly lower than the 19.2% increase measured in November. In contrast, salaries rose at a faster pace in December in the private sector. The 13.2% year-on-year increase was also higher than the 2019 average (11.6%). Details will show that not every subsector closed a good year.
Wage dynamics (3-month moving average, % YoY)
In December, wages increased above the national average in agriculture and manufacturing. Workers in mining and quarrying faced a whopping 25% YoY wage rise, probably thanks to bonuses. Employees in the energy sector were not so lucky as wages dropped by almost 3%. It’s hard to imagine that regular wages decreased, so we guess that yearly incentives and bonuses decreased significantly in this sector.
When it comes to 2019 as a whole, both gross and net wages rose by 11.5% compared to 2018. However, the double-digit wage growth (the third year in a row) is complemented by accelerating inflation, so net real wage growth came in at 7.7% YoY. It is still strong but shows a significant drop compared to the previous two years, when real wages rose by 10.3% and 8.3%, respectively.
Increases to the minimum wage are an important indication as to how things will look throughout 2020. This rose by 8% from January, while based on anecdotal evidence, public servants in some sectors and private employers are increasing pay by or more than 10%. However, due to accelerating inflation, even with a fourth year of double-digit wage growth, we see net real wage growth sinking to below 7%.
This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
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