In September, Eurozone exports declined by -2.5% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis, rounding out a disappointing quarter. It seems like the Eurozone is feeling the impact of a tense global trade environment, although it is difficult to disentangle global factors from domestic ones such as car-industry disruptions in Germany that impacted the September data. As imports increased slightly, the trade balance dropped significantly to 13.4 billion.
Despite one-offs impacting the September trade data, it comes as no surprise that the outlook for Eurozone exports remains clouded with uncertainty. Even though a draft agreement for Brexit is now on the table, a lot of hurdles have yet to be taken for a transition without disruptions to happen. And European Commission President Juncker has indicated that the truce in the trade row between the EU and US may only last until year-end. The exports environment for the Eurozone, therefore, seems to be challenging for the winter months.