Czech confidence just slightly improved in April

Total confidence in the domestic economy improved slightly in April compared to the previous month due to slightly better confidence in industry, while households’ confidence slightly decreased for the third consecutive month. Besides construction, confidence in all watched segments is below its one-year average.

Another decline in household confidence goes on the back of higher concerns about future economic developments, but the assessment of households' own financial situation has not changed compared to March, as well as concerns about rising unemployment or households' saving plans. Still, household confidence has gradually reached its lowest level this year since mid-2016.

Business confidence improved slightly in April, driven mainly by higher confidence in industry, while confidence in other business sectors was slightly lower. In general, however, confidence remains high and/or close to its historically highest levels in services and construction, while in industry and trade it is lower than in previous years.

April industrial confidence growth seems slightly surprising in the context of the development of similar indicators abroad, mainly manufacturing PMIs from Germany. However, domestic industrial confidence growth was driven mainly by the more volatile component of expectations for the next three months, which improved in April after the previous three weak prints. On the other hand, the assessment of current demand in industry declined in April further to its lowest level since early 2014. In this respect, the message of higher April confidence in industry is providing less clear evidence. As such, recent confidence data are not bringing a clear signal for the forthcoming CNB meeting, which seems to be 50:50 call right now.