Bulgaria: GDP growth accelerates at the start of the year

GDP growth accelerated by 1.1% quarter on quarter in 1Q19, from 0.8% QoQ previously. We see full-year growth at 3.4%

The economy expanded by 3.4% year-on-year in 1Q19 versus 1Q18. Net export was the main contributor to sequential growth, consumption recovered, while gross fixed capital formation decelerated.

3.4%

YoY GDP growth

vs 3.2% Bloomberg median and ING call

Higher than expected

Soft data points to similar cruising speed

The economic sentiment index (ESI) recovered at the start of the second quarter as fiscal and monetary stimulus and EU funds should be enough to keep growth prospects quite solid for the current year.