Briefing Romania

In line with its regional peers, the Romanian leu lost ground against the euro on Friday and closed around 4.7550, almost 100 pips higher than the opening level. The move was probably enough for one day and we expect the pair to hover today around 4.7500 and to test higher levels in the coming days.

Following a dull trading session on Friday with no relevant movements along the curve, the Ministry of Finance will auction today RON600 million in June-2024 bonds. The tenor looks suitable for a broad range of investors. The failed 15Y auction from last Thursday might have dented confidence a bit but we still expect reasonable demand for today and an average yield around 3.85%.

The last day of the minimum reserve maintenance period finds carry slightly below the deposit facility. The NBR’s deposit auction should be met with some prudence as the dates inconveniently include the budget payments period when the cashflows become significantly more unpredictable.