US politics watch: Impeachment deepens the divide

Despite solid support from Democrats in the House of Representatives, the chances of the President being removed from office remain small, given the strong Republican majority in the Senate.

Nevertheless, impeachment has major implications for the electoral landscape, both for the Democratic party primaries as well as the 2020 general election.

Since early October, public opinion polls have consistently shown greater support for impeachment than opposition to it, though that gap has narrowed slightly. Critically however, the Republican party shows no sign of abandoning the President. No Republican congressman has yet indicated his or her support for the articles of impeachment. 

Polarized partisanship in the present Congress means that President Trump, having been impeached by the House, will be acquitted by the Senate, where the entire Democratic caucus, every Independent, and 20 Republican Senators would need to vote against the president for him to be convicted.

If public opinion started to turn on Trump – and, crucially, if Republican senators decided that it was more costly to their own political standing to keep him in office than to replace him – then we could see a rapid shift towards conviction.

Whether or not the Senate chooses to convict the President will affect the four election scenarios outlined in our initial report published in April 2019, ‘Politics watch: 4 scenarios for America’s next presidential election’ and in the September update ‘US politics: Trump weathers the storms’. Impeachment is now set to be a key driver of the 2020 election.