United States of Trump

Donald Trump’s election campaign in 2016 ripped up the rule book on how to win the Presidency and he has been challenging convention ever since. But while he remains a political iconoclast, the result of the 2018 midterm elections showed that traditional political lessons still apply.

In 2020, Trump’s re-election prospects rest on the balance between historical patterns that favour a president’s second term in a good economy (especially in swing states), and demographic factors that suggest his defeat.

This report looks at some of the key events that could lead to Trump winning a second term and the impact this could have on the economy and financial markets.

We assume that Congress remains divided, constraining Trump’s ability to pass major legislation. However, bipartisan action may be possible in areas such as infrastructure spending and middle-class tax cuts.

This should keep the economy, equities and the dollar supported initially, though concern about rising deficits and higher inflation risk an increasingly aggressive response from the Fed, and threaten to derail economic growth later on.

You can read the full report here.